Trader sentiment on Chengdu's March 28 high temperature tilts toward 24°C or higher at 33% implied probability, driven by the latest ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and China Meteorological Administration models converging on 23-24°C peaks under a persistent high-pressure ridge fostering clear skies and adiabatic warming over the Sichuan Basin. Differentiating the tight race with 23°C (25%) and 22°C (17.5%) are subtle variations in predicted cloud cover—scattered intervals could cap at 23°C, while sunnier conditions boost to 24°C via enhanced solar insolation—against a 2024 spring already 2-3°C above the 18-20°C historical March norms, amplified by urban heat island effects in the city center where official observations are taken. Diurnal uncertainty persists ahead of final observations.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоHighest temperature in Chengdu on March 28?
Highest temperature in Chengdu on March 28?
24°C or higher 30%
23°C 25%
22°C 21%
21°C 11%
14°C or below
1%
15°C
6%
16°C
3%
17°C
4%
18°C
10%
19°C
10%
20°C
10%
21°C
11%
22°C
21%
23°C
25%
24°C or higher
32%
24°C or higher 30%
23°C 25%
22°C 21%
21°C 11%
14°C or below
1%
15°C
6%
16°C
3%
17°C
4%
18°C
10%
19°C
10%
20°C
10%
21°C
11%
22°C
21%
23°C
25%
24°C or higher
32%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: Mar 24, 2026, 6:32 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUUResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUUResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment on Chengdu's March 28 high temperature tilts toward 24°C or higher at 33% implied probability, driven by the latest ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and China Meteorological Administration models converging on 23-24°C peaks under a persistent high-pressure ridge fostering clear skies and adiabatic warming over the Sichuan Basin. Differentiating the tight race with 23°C (25%) and 22°C (17.5%) are subtle variations in predicted cloud cover—scattered intervals could cap at 23°C, while sunnier conditions boost to 24°C via enhanced solar insolation—against a 2024 spring already 2-3°C above the 18-20°C historical March norms, amplified by urban heat island effects in the city center where official observations are taken. Diurnal uncertainty persists ahead of final observations.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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