Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a tight cluster of implied probabilities around 84-89°F for Dallas's highest temperature on March 24, driven primarily by the latest National Weather Service forecast pinpointing 88°F amid a robust high-pressure ridge fostering above-normal warmth—well exceeding the late-March climatological average of 72°F. Ensemble models like GFS and ECMWF show spreads of 2-4°F, with recent 00z runs slightly favoring 86-89°F due to enhanced downslope warming and minimal cloud interference. Differentiating factors include potential late-day cumulus clouds or boundary-layer mixing variability, which could cap peaks at 84-85°F or push toward 90°F, explaining the razor-thin odds separation as traders weigh these mesoscale uncertainties against historical forecast biases for similar setups.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоСамая высокая температура в Далласе 24 марта?
Самая высокая температура в Далласе 24 марта?
88-89°F 23%
84-85°F 21%
86-87°F 20%
90-91°F 14%
77°F или ниже
3%
78-79°F
4%
80–81°F
8%
82-83°F
14%
84-85°F
21%
86-87°F
20%
88-89°F
23%
90-91°F
14%
92–93°F
5%
94-95°F
2%
96°F или выше
3%
88-89°F 23%
84-85°F 21%
86-87°F 20%
90-91°F 14%
77°F или ниже
3%
78-79°F
4%
80–81°F
8%
82-83°F
14%
84-85°F
21%
86-87°F
20%
88-89°F
23%
90-91°F
14%
92–93°F
5%
94-95°F
2%
96°F или выше
3%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Dallas Love Field Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/dallas/KDAL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: Mar 20, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/dallas/KDALResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/dallas/KDALResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a tight cluster of implied probabilities around 84-89°F for Dallas's highest temperature on March 24, driven primarily by the latest National Weather Service forecast pinpointing 88°F amid a robust high-pressure ridge fostering above-normal warmth—well exceeding the late-March climatological average of 72°F. Ensemble models like GFS and ECMWF show spreads of 2-4°F, with recent 00z runs slightly favoring 86-89°F due to enhanced downslope warming and minimal cloud interference. Differentiating factors include potential late-day cumulus clouds or boundary-layer mixing variability, which could cap peaks at 84-85°F or push toward 90°F, explaining the razor-thin odds separation as traders weigh these mesoscale uncertainties against historical forecast biases for similar setups.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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