Model ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS, updated March 27, drive the tight race in trader consensus for Taipei's March 28 high temperature, with implied probabilities peaking at 22°C (20.5%) and 23°C (20.0%). Taiwan's Central Weather Administration projects a 24°C peak under partly cloudy skies, but incoming frontal systems introduce uncertainty, potentially capping highs at 21°C via increased cloud cover and showers—historical late-March averages hover at 23°C with ±2°C variability. Divergence stems from precipitation odds: lower chances favor 23-24°C warming, while 40% rain probability tilts toward cooler 21-22°C outcomes, per radar trends. Traders await today's noon forecast refresh for resolution clarity.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоHighest temperature in Taipei on March 28?
Highest temperature in Taipei on March 28?
23°C 20%
21°C 18%
22°C 17%
26°C or higher 14.6%
16°C or below
2%
17°C
7%
18°C
8%
19°C
9%
20°C
9%
21°C
18%
22°C
21%
23°C
20%
24°C
13%
25°C
12%
26°C or higher
9%
23°C 20%
21°C 18%
22°C 17%
26°C or higher 14.6%
16°C or below
2%
17°C
7%
18°C
8%
19°C
9%
20°C
9%
21°C
18%
22°C
21%
23°C
20%
24°C
13%
25°C
12%
26°C or higher
9%
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=RCTP
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: Mar 24, 2026, 6:30 AM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Model ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS, updated March 27, drive the tight race in trader consensus for Taipei's March 28 high temperature, with implied probabilities peaking at 22°C (20.5%) and 23°C (20.0%). Taiwan's Central Weather Administration projects a 24°C peak under partly cloudy skies, but incoming frontal systems introduce uncertainty, potentially capping highs at 21°C via increased cloud cover and showers—historical late-March averages hover at 23°C with ±2°C variability. Divergence stems from precipitation odds: lower chances favor 23-24°C warming, while 40% rain probability tilts toward cooler 21-22°C outcomes, per radar trends. Traders await today's noon forecast refresh for resolution clarity.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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