Trader sentiment clusters tightly around 18–22°C for Beijing's highest temperature on March 28, driven by converging ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models showing daily maxima in the 19–21°C range amid a stable high-pressure ridge. Recent CMA updates confirm southerly winds advecting mild spring air, boosting urban heat island effects in Beijing by 2–3°C over rural baselines, favoring outcomes above the March historical average of 13°C. Differentiation hinges on cloud cover variability—clear skies could push toward 22°C via enhanced solar insolation, while partial overcast from lingering frontal remnants caps at 18–19°C—underscoring model spread and the market's razor-thin 24% implied odds for 19°C. Final CMA observations will resolve thresholds.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоHighest temperature in Beijing on March 28?
Highest temperature in Beijing on March 28?
21°C 23%
22°C 22%
19°C 22%
18°C 19%
16°C or below
4%
17°C
9%
18°C
19%
19°C
22%
20°C
19%
21°C
23%
22°C
22%
23°C
19%
24°C
14%
25°C
8%
26°C or higher
2%
21°C 23%
22°C 22%
19°C 22%
18°C 19%
16°C or below
4%
17°C
9%
18°C
19%
19°C
22%
20°C
19%
21°C
23%
22°C
22%
23°C
19%
24°C
14%
25°C
8%
26°C or higher
2%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: Mar 24, 2026, 6:10 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment clusters tightly around 18–22°C for Beijing's highest temperature on March 28, driven by converging ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models showing daily maxima in the 19–21°C range amid a stable high-pressure ridge. Recent CMA updates confirm southerly winds advecting mild spring air, boosting urban heat island effects in Beijing by 2–3°C over rural baselines, favoring outcomes above the March historical average of 13°C. Differentiation hinges on cloud cover variability—clear skies could push toward 22°C via enhanced solar insolation, while partial overcast from lingering frontal remnants caps at 18–19°C—underscoring model spread and the market's razor-thin 24% implied odds for 19°C. Final CMA observations will resolve thresholds.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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