Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in short-range forecasts for Chengdu's highest temperature on April 1, with implied probabilities evenly split around 25% for cooler outcomes like 17°C or below and warmer ones like 27°C or higher, driven by ensemble spread in ECMWF and GFS models projecting highs from 18-26°C. Recent China Meteorological Administration updates show late March temperatures fluctuating between 19-25°C amid variable cloud cover in the Sichuan Basin, where temperature inversions and frontal passages amplify forecast errors of 3-5°C at three-day leads. Key differentiators include potential persistent stratiform clouds suppressing peaks below 20°C versus stronger southerly winds and ridge amplification pushing toward 25°C; watch CMA's daily bulletins and evening ECMWF runs for refinements ahead of resolution using official station data.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоHighest temperature in Chengdu on April 1?
Highest temperature in Chengdu on April 1?
20°C 20%
19°C 17%
17°C or below 16%
23°C 16%
NEW
NEW
Apr 1, 2026
17°C or below
10%
18°C
9%
19°C
17%
20°C
11%
21°C
12%
22°C
13%
23°C
16%
24°C
12%
25°C
9%
26°C
9%
27°C or higher
9%
20°C 20%
19°C 17%
17°C or below 16%
23°C 16%
NEW
NEW
Apr 1, 2026
17°C or below
$21 Объем
10%
18°C
$5 Объем
9%
19°C
$5 Объем
17%
20°C
$35 Объем
11%
21°C
$5 Объем
12%
22°C
$38 Объем
13%
23°C
$5 Объем
16%
24°C
$5 Объем
12%
25°C
$5 Объем
9%
26°C
$5 Объем
9%
27°C or higher
$10 Объем
9%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in short-range forecasts for Chengdu's highest temperature on April 1, with implied probabilities evenly split around 25% for cooler outcomes like 17°C or below and warmer ones like 27°C or higher, driven by ensemble spread in ECMWF and GFS models projecting highs from 18-26°C. Recent China Meteorological Administration updates show late March temperatures fluctuating between 19-25°C amid variable cloud cover in the Sichuan Basin, where temperature inversions and frontal passages amplify forecast errors of 3-5°C at three-day leads. Key differentiators include potential persistent stratiform clouds suppressing peaks below 20°C versus stronger southerly winds and ridge amplification pushing toward 25°C; watch CMA's daily bulletins and evening ECMWF runs for refinements ahead of resolution using official station data.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: Mar 29, 2026, 2:25 PM ET
Объем
$139Дата окончания
Apr 1, 2026Открытие рынка
Mar 29, 2026, 2:25 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUUResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in short-range forecasts for Chengdu's highest temperature on April 1, with implied probabilities evenly split around 25% for cooler outcomes like 17°C or below and warmer ones like 27°C or higher, driven by ensemble spread in ECMWF and GFS models projecting highs from 18-26°C. Recent China Meteorological Administration updates show late March temperatures fluctuating between 19-25°C amid variable cloud cover in the Sichuan Basin, where temperature inversions and frontal passages amplify forecast errors of 3-5°C at three-day leads. Key differentiators include potential persistent stratiform clouds suppressing peaks below 20°C versus stronger southerly winds and ridge amplification pushing toward 25°C; watch CMA's daily bulletins and evening ECMWF runs for refinements ahead of resolution using official station data.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Объем
$139Дата окончания
Apr 1, 2026Открытие рынка
Mar 29, 2026, 2:25 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUUResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in short-range forecasts for Chengdu's highest temperature on April 1, with implied probabilities evenly split around 25% for cooler outcomes like 17°C or below and warmer ones like 27°C or higher, driven by ensemble spread in ECMWF and GFS models projecting highs from 18-26°C. Recent China Meteorological Administration updates show late March temperatures fluctuating between 19-25°C amid variable cloud cover in the Sichuan Basin, where temperature inversions and frontal passages amplify forecast errors of 3-5°C at three-day leads. Key differentiators include potential persistent stratiform clouds suppressing peaks below 20°C versus stronger southerly winds and ridge amplification pushing toward 25°C; watch CMA's daily bulletins and evening ECMWF runs for refinements ahead of resolution using official station data.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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