Trader consensus on Polymarket closely splits between 19°C (33.5%) and 20°C (32.0%) for Madrid's highest temperature on April 1, reflecting the tight spread in latest forecast model ensembles from AEMET and ECMWF, where the mean peaks near 19.5°C amid mild continental spring conditions. Recent March warmth, with highs exceeding 21°C earlier in the month per AEMET observations, supports this positioning via persistent high-pressure influence over Iberia, though model disagreements arise from variable cloud cover and southerly flow strength that could cap or boost daytime heating. Climatological April 1 highs average 18°C at Madrid's Retiro station, adding context to the 45-55% uncertainty range; watch AEMET's daily updates and GFS refreshes by March 31 for shifts ahead of resolution based on official maximum readings.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоHighest temperature in Madrid on April 1?
Highest temperature in Madrid on April 1?
19°C 34%
20°C 32%
18°C 19%
17°C 18%
NEW
NEW
Apr 1, 2026
14°C or below
7%
15°C
9%
16°C
9%
17°C
11%
18°C
19%
19°C
34%
20°C
32%
21°C
9%
22°C
9%
23°C
9%
24°C or higher
9%
19°C 34%
20°C 32%
18°C 19%
17°C 18%
NEW
NEW
Apr 1, 2026
14°C or below
$115 Объем
7%
15°C
$71 Объем
9%
16°C
$2 Объем
9%
17°C
$12 Объем
11%
18°C
$38 Объем
19%
19°C
$10 Объем
34%
20°C
$0 Объем
32%
21°C
$4 Объем
9%
22°C
$8 Объем
9%
23°C
$8 Объем
9%
24°C or higher
$10 Объем
9%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket closely splits between 19°C (33.5%) and 20°C (32.0%) for Madrid's highest temperature on April 1, reflecting the tight spread in latest forecast model ensembles from AEMET and ECMWF, where the mean peaks near 19.5°C amid mild continental spring conditions. Recent March warmth, with highs exceeding 21°C earlier in the month per AEMET observations, supports this positioning via persistent high-pressure influence over Iberia, though model disagreements arise from variable cloud cover and southerly flow strength that could cap or boost daytime heating. Climatological April 1 highs average 18°C at Madrid's Retiro station, adding context to the 45-55% uncertainty range; watch AEMET's daily updates and GFS refreshes by March 31 for shifts ahead of resolution based on official maximum readings.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: Mar 29, 2026, 4:44 PM ET
Объем
$278Дата окончания
Apr 1, 2026Открытие рынка
Mar 29, 2026, 4:44 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket closely splits between 19°C (33.5%) and 20°C (32.0%) for Madrid's highest temperature on April 1, reflecting the tight spread in latest forecast model ensembles from AEMET and ECMWF, where the mean peaks near 19.5°C amid mild continental spring conditions. Recent March warmth, with highs exceeding 21°C earlier in the month per AEMET observations, supports this positioning via persistent high-pressure influence over Iberia, though model disagreements arise from variable cloud cover and southerly flow strength that could cap or boost daytime heating. Climatological April 1 highs average 18°C at Madrid's Retiro station, adding context to the 45-55% uncertainty range; watch AEMET's daily updates and GFS refreshes by March 31 for shifts ahead of resolution based on official maximum readings.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Объем
$278Дата окончания
Apr 1, 2026Открытие рынка
Mar 29, 2026, 4:44 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket closely splits between 19°C (33.5%) and 20°C (32.0%) for Madrid's highest temperature on April 1, reflecting the tight spread in latest forecast model ensembles from AEMET and ECMWF, where the mean peaks near 19.5°C amid mild continental spring conditions. Recent March warmth, with highs exceeding 21°C earlier in the month per AEMET observations, supports this positioning via persistent high-pressure influence over Iberia, though model disagreements arise from variable cloud cover and southerly flow strength that could cap or boost daytime heating. Climatological April 1 highs average 18°C at Madrid's Retiro station, adding context to the 45-55% uncertainty range; watch AEMET's daily updates and GFS refreshes by March 31 for shifts ahead of resolution based on official maximum readings.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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