Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects significant uncertainty in short-range forecasts for Dallas's highest temperature on April 1, with no outcome exceeding 25% implied probability amid divergent National Weather Service guidance near 78°F and ensemble spreads from GFS and ECMWF models ranging 72–84°F. A recent cold front through March 27–28 cooled North Texas highs to the 50s–60s°F, but spring 2026 outlooks from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center favor above-normal temperatures—historical April 1 average at Dallas/Fort Worth International Airport is 76°F—driven by a building upper-level ridge and weak La Niña transition reducing storminess. Differentiating factors include cloud cover persistence, southerly wind strength post-frontal recovery, and low soil moisture limiting evaporative cooling; daily 00Z/12Z model updates and NWS advisories through March 30–31 will sharpen resolution criteria based on official airport observations.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоHighest temperature in Dallas on April 1?
Highest temperature in Dallas on April 1?
84°F или выше 26%
76-77°F 17%
82–83°F 15%
78-79°F 13%
NEW
NEW
Apr 1, 2026
65°F or below
1%
66-67°F
3%
68-69°F
2%
70-71°F
4%
72-73°F
8%
74-75°F
5%
76-77°F
17%
78-79°F
13%
80-81°F
11%
82–83°F
11%
84°F или выше
26%
84°F или выше 26%
76-77°F 17%
82–83°F 15%
78-79°F 13%
NEW
NEW
Apr 1, 2026
65°F or below
$145 Объем
1%
66-67°F
$121 Объем
3%
68-69°F
$0 Объем
2%
70-71°F
$14 Объем
4%
72-73°F
$15 Объем
8%
74-75°F
$416 Объем
5%
76-77°F
$903 Объем
17%
78-79°F
$532 Объем
13%
80-81°F
$237 Объем
11%
82–83°F
$40 Объем
11%
84°F или выше
$408 Объем
26%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Dallas Love Field Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 1 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Dallas Love Field Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/dallas/KDAL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects significant uncertainty in short-range forecasts for Dallas's highest temperature on April 1, with no outcome exceeding 25% implied probability amid divergent National Weather Service guidance near 78°F and ensemble spreads from GFS and ECMWF models ranging 72–84°F. A recent cold front through March 27–28 cooled North Texas highs to the 50s–60s°F, but spring 2026 outlooks from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center favor above-normal temperatures—historical April 1 average at Dallas/Fort Worth International Airport is 76°F—driven by a building upper-level ridge and weak La Niña transition reducing storminess. Differentiating factors include cloud cover persistence, southerly wind strength post-frontal recovery, and low soil moisture limiting evaporative cooling; daily 00Z/12Z model updates and NWS advisories through March 30–31 will sharpen resolution criteria based on official airport observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Dallas Love Field Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 1 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Dallas Love Field Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/dallas/KDAL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Dallas Love Field Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/dallas/KDAL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: Mar 28, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Объем
$2,831Дата окончания
Apr 1, 2026Открытие рынка
Mar 28, 2026, 6:02 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/dallas/KDALResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Dallas Love Field Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 1 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Dallas Love Field Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/dallas/KDAL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects significant uncertainty in short-range forecasts for Dallas's highest temperature on April 1, with no outcome exceeding 25% implied probability amid divergent National Weather Service guidance near 78°F and ensemble spreads from GFS and ECMWF models ranging 72–84°F. A recent cold front through March 27–28 cooled North Texas highs to the 50s–60s°F, but spring 2026 outlooks from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center favor above-normal temperatures—historical April 1 average at Dallas/Fort Worth International Airport is 76°F—driven by a building upper-level ridge and weak La Niña transition reducing storminess. Differentiating factors include cloud cover persistence, southerly wind strength post-frontal recovery, and low soil moisture limiting evaporative cooling; daily 00Z/12Z model updates and NWS advisories through March 30–31 will sharpen resolution criteria based on official airport observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Dallas Love Field Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 1 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Dallas Love Field Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/dallas/KDAL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Dallas Love Field Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/dallas/KDAL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Объем
$2,831Дата окончания
Apr 1, 2026Открытие рынка
Mar 28, 2026, 6:02 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/dallas/KDALResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects significant uncertainty in short-range forecasts for Dallas's highest temperature on April 1, with no outcome exceeding 25% implied probability amid divergent National Weather Service guidance near 78°F and ensemble spreads from GFS and ECMWF models ranging 72–84°F. A recent cold front through March 27–28 cooled North Texas highs to the 50s–60s°F, but spring 2026 outlooks from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center favor above-normal temperatures—historical April 1 average at Dallas/Fort Worth International Airport is 76°F—driven by a building upper-level ridge and weak La Niña transition reducing storminess. Differentiating factors include cloud cover persistence, southerly wind strength post-frontal recovery, and low soil moisture limiting evaporative cooling; daily 00Z/12Z model updates and NWS advisories through March 30–31 will sharpen resolution criteria based on official airport observations.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Часто задаваемые вопросы