Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in National Weather Service and global model forecasts for Austin's highest temperature on April 4, with implied probabilities nearly split between 90°F or higher (42%) and 71°F or below (40%), driven by divergent GFS and ECMWF ensemble runs on a potential cold front's timing. Recent top-5 warmest March temperatures have built ridge persistence favoring heat, but the latest model updates over the past 48 hours signal a strengthening upper-level trough possibly ushering cooler air and showers by early April, per NWS Austin/San Antonio discussions. Climatologically, early April highs average 78°F with frequent frontal passages; watch daily 12Z model refreshes for front progression, as resolution hinges on Austin-Bergstrom International Airport observations.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоHighest temperature in Austin on April 4?
Highest temperature in Austin on April 4?
90°F or higher 41%
71°F or below 39%
72-73°F 18%
74-75°F 18%
71°F or below
39%
72-73°F
18%
74-75°F
18%
76-77°F
18%
78-79°F
18%
80-81°F
18%
82-83°F
18%
84-85°F
18%
86-87°F
18%
88-89°F
18%
90°F or higher
41%
90°F or higher 41%
71°F or below 39%
72-73°F 18%
74-75°F 18%
71°F or below
39%
72-73°F
18%
74-75°F
18%
76-77°F
18%
78-79°F
18%
80-81°F
18%
82-83°F
18%
84-85°F
18%
86-87°F
18%
88-89°F
18%
90°F or higher
41%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: Mar 29, 2026, 3:03 PM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUSResolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUSResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in National Weather Service and global model forecasts for Austin's highest temperature on April 4, with implied probabilities nearly split between 90°F or higher (42%) and 71°F or below (40%), driven by divergent GFS and ECMWF ensemble runs on a potential cold front's timing. Recent top-5 warmest March temperatures have built ridge persistence favoring heat, but the latest model updates over the past 48 hours signal a strengthening upper-level trough possibly ushering cooler air and showers by early April, per NWS Austin/San Antonio discussions. Climatologically, early April highs average 78°F with frequent frontal passages; watch daily 12Z model refreshes for front progression, as resolution hinges on Austin-Bergstrom International Airport observations.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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