Trader consensus on Polymarket shows evenly matched implied probabilities around 17–21% across outcomes, reflecting substantial uncertainty in five-day forecasts for Mexico City's highest temperature on April 4 amid divergent GFS and ECMWF ensemble runs. The city's 2,240-meter elevation typically yields April highs near the 26°C climatological normal, with historical variability allowing cooler spells below 22°C under persistent cloud cover—as seen in recent Servicio Meteorológico Nacional reports of late-March thunderstorms—or hotter days above 30°C if a high-pressure ridge strengthens solar heating and urban effects. Transition to ENSO-neutral conditions supports typical patterns without extremes; upcoming SMN updates and model refreshes every 12 hours will clarify ridge development versus frontal influences differentiating mid-20s from tail outcomes.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоHighest temperature in Mexico City on April 4?
Highest temperature in Mexico City on April 4?
21°C or below 21%
31°C or higher 21%
25°C 18%
26°C 18%
NEW
NEW
Apr 4, 2026
21°C or below
21%
22°C
17%
23°C
17%
24°C
18%
25°C
18%
26°C
18%
27°C
18%
28°C
18%
29°C
17%
30°C
17%
31°C or higher
21%
21°C or below 21%
31°C or higher 21%
25°C 18%
26°C 18%
NEW
NEW
Apr 4, 2026
21°C or below
$0 Объем
21%
22°C
$5 Объем
17%
23°C
$0 Объем
17%
24°C
$0 Объем
18%
25°C
$0 Объем
18%
26°C
$0 Объем
18%
27°C
$0 Объем
18%
28°C
$0 Объем
18%
29°C
$0 Объем
17%
30°C
$0 Объем
17%
31°C or higher
$0 Объем
21%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket shows evenly matched implied probabilities around 17–21% across outcomes, reflecting substantial uncertainty in five-day forecasts for Mexico City's highest temperature on April 4 amid divergent GFS and ECMWF ensemble runs. The city's 2,240-meter elevation typically yields April highs near the 26°C climatological normal, with historical variability allowing cooler spells below 22°C under persistent cloud cover—as seen in recent Servicio Meteorológico Nacional reports of late-March thunderstorms—or hotter days above 30°C if a high-pressure ridge strengthens solar heating and urban effects. Transition to ENSO-neutral conditions supports typical patterns without extremes; upcoming SMN updates and model refreshes every 12 hours will clarify ridge development versus frontal influences differentiating mid-20s from tail outcomes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: Mar 29, 2026, 3:57 PM ET
Объем
$5Дата окончания
Apr 4, 2026Открытие рынка
Mar 29, 2026, 3:57 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMXResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket shows evenly matched implied probabilities around 17–21% across outcomes, reflecting substantial uncertainty in five-day forecasts for Mexico City's highest temperature on April 4 amid divergent GFS and ECMWF ensemble runs. The city's 2,240-meter elevation typically yields April highs near the 26°C climatological normal, with historical variability allowing cooler spells below 22°C under persistent cloud cover—as seen in recent Servicio Meteorológico Nacional reports of late-March thunderstorms—or hotter days above 30°C if a high-pressure ridge strengthens solar heating and urban effects. Transition to ENSO-neutral conditions supports typical patterns without extremes; upcoming SMN updates and model refreshes every 12 hours will clarify ridge development versus frontal influences differentiating mid-20s from tail outcomes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Объем
$5Дата окончания
Apr 4, 2026Открытие рынка
Mar 29, 2026, 3:57 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMXResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket shows evenly matched implied probabilities around 17–21% across outcomes, reflecting substantial uncertainty in five-day forecasts for Mexico City's highest temperature on April 4 amid divergent GFS and ECMWF ensemble runs. The city's 2,240-meter elevation typically yields April highs near the 26°C climatological normal, with historical variability allowing cooler spells below 22°C under persistent cloud cover—as seen in recent Servicio Meteorológico Nacional reports of late-March thunderstorms—or hotter days above 30°C if a high-pressure ridge strengthens solar heating and urban effects. Transition to ENSO-neutral conditions supports typical patterns without extremes; upcoming SMN updates and model refreshes every 12 hours will clarify ridge development versus frontal influences differentiating mid-20s from tail outcomes.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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