Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects profound uncertainty in forecast models for Mexico City's highest temperature on April 3, with equal 25.5% implied probabilities across outcomes from 21°C or below to 31°C or higher, as ensemble spreads in GFS and ECMWF diverge widely five days out. At 2,240 meters elevation, the Valle de México typically sees April highs of 25-27°C per Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN) climatology, moderated by dry-season subsidence and urban heat effects, but a persistent subtropical ridge fueling late-March heatwaves—up to 4°C above normal—could push toward 28-30°C if clear skies hold, while increased cloudiness or northerly winds might cap at 22-24°C. Watch SMN's daily briefings and fresh model runs for shifts before resolution via official airport observations.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоHighest temperature in Mexico City on April 3?
Highest temperature in Mexico City on April 3?
21°C or below 41%
31°C or higher 40%
26°C 24%
27°C 22%
NEW
NEW
Apr 3, 2026
21°C or below
41%
22°C
18%
23°C
18%
24°C
17%
25°C
21%
26°C
24%
27°C
22%
28°C
21%
29°C
17%
30°C
17%
31°C or higher
40%
21°C or below 41%
31°C or higher 40%
26°C 24%
27°C 22%
NEW
NEW
Apr 3, 2026
21°C or below
$0 Объем
41%
22°C
$0 Объем
18%
23°C
$0 Объем
18%
24°C
$0 Объем
17%
25°C
$0 Объем
21%
26°C
$0 Объем
24%
27°C
$0 Объем
22%
28°C
$0 Объем
21%
29°C
$0 Объем
17%
30°C
$0 Объем
17%
31°C or higher
$0 Объем
40%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects profound uncertainty in forecast models for Mexico City's highest temperature on April 3, with equal 25.5% implied probabilities across outcomes from 21°C or below to 31°C or higher, as ensemble spreads in GFS and ECMWF diverge widely five days out. At 2,240 meters elevation, the Valle de México typically sees April highs of 25-27°C per Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN) climatology, moderated by dry-season subsidence and urban heat effects, but a persistent subtropical ridge fueling late-March heatwaves—up to 4°C above normal—could push toward 28-30°C if clear skies hold, while increased cloudiness or northerly winds might cap at 22-24°C. Watch SMN's daily briefings and fresh model runs for shifts before resolution via official airport observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: Mar 29, 2026, 2:51 PM ET
Объем
$0Дата окончания
Apr 3, 2026Открытие рынка
Mar 29, 2026, 2:51 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMXResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects profound uncertainty in forecast models for Mexico City's highest temperature on April 3, with equal 25.5% implied probabilities across outcomes from 21°C or below to 31°C or higher, as ensemble spreads in GFS and ECMWF diverge widely five days out. At 2,240 meters elevation, the Valle de México typically sees April highs of 25-27°C per Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN) climatology, moderated by dry-season subsidence and urban heat effects, but a persistent subtropical ridge fueling late-March heatwaves—up to 4°C above normal—could push toward 28-30°C if clear skies hold, while increased cloudiness or northerly winds might cap at 22-24°C. Watch SMN's daily briefings and fresh model runs for shifts before resolution via official airport observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Объем
$0Дата окончания
Apr 3, 2026Открытие рынка
Mar 29, 2026, 2:51 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMXResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects profound uncertainty in forecast models for Mexico City's highest temperature on April 3, with equal 25.5% implied probabilities across outcomes from 21°C or below to 31°C or higher, as ensemble spreads in GFS and ECMWF diverge widely five days out. At 2,240 meters elevation, the Valle de México typically sees April highs of 25-27°C per Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN) climatology, moderated by dry-season subsidence and urban heat effects, but a persistent subtropical ridge fueling late-March heatwaves—up to 4°C above normal—could push toward 28-30°C if clear skies hold, while increased cloudiness or northerly winds might cap at 22-24°C. Watch SMN's daily briefings and fresh model runs for shifts before resolution via official airport observations.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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