Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects significant uncertainty in short-range forecasts for Chengdu's highest temperature on April 3, with implied probabilities closely clustered around 22–30°C outcomes driven by divergent global model ensembles. The latest ECMWF and GFS runs project ensemble means of 23–26°C under partly sunny to overcast skies, but member spreads exceed 5°C due to variable cloud cover, potential light showers, and steering from mid-level troughs or ridging over the Sichuan Basin. Early April climatology shows average highs near 21°C, with historical outliers up to 28°C amid spring warming trends, though frontal passages could suppress peaks. Key differentiators include subsidence favoring 27–30°C versus persistent clouds limiting to 22–25°C; watch China Meteorological Administration updates and 12Z model refreshes tomorrow for shifts.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоHighest temperature in Chengdu on April 3?
Highest temperature in Chengdu on April 3?
26°C 28%
22°C 24%
27°C 23%
28°C 23%
NEW
NEW
Apr 3, 2026
20°C or below
3%
21°C
10%
22°C
24%
23°C
16%
24°C
17%
25°C
20%
26°C
28%
27°C
23%
28°C
23%
29°C
16%
30°C or higher
27%
26°C 28%
22°C 24%
27°C 23%
28°C 23%
NEW
NEW
Apr 3, 2026
20°C or below
$41 Объем
3%
21°C
$6 Объем
10%
22°C
$6 Объем
24%
23°C
$6 Объем
16%
24°C
$6 Объем
17%
25°C
$6 Объем
20%
26°C
$6 Объем
28%
27°C
$6 Объем
23%
28°C
$6 Объем
23%
29°C
$6 Объем
16%
30°C or higher
$61 Объем
27%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects significant uncertainty in short-range forecasts for Chengdu's highest temperature on April 3, with implied probabilities closely clustered around 22–30°C outcomes driven by divergent global model ensembles. The latest ECMWF and GFS runs project ensemble means of 23–26°C under partly sunny to overcast skies, but member spreads exceed 5°C due to variable cloud cover, potential light showers, and steering from mid-level troughs or ridging over the Sichuan Basin. Early April climatology shows average highs near 21°C, with historical outliers up to 28°C amid spring warming trends, though frontal passages could suppress peaks. Key differentiators include subsidence favoring 27–30°C versus persistent clouds limiting to 22–25°C; watch China Meteorological Administration updates and 12Z model refreshes tomorrow for shifts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: Mar 29, 2026, 4:13 PM ET
Объем
$157Дата окончания
Apr 3, 2026Открытие рынка
Mar 29, 2026, 4:13 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUUResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects significant uncertainty in short-range forecasts for Chengdu's highest temperature on April 3, with implied probabilities closely clustered around 22–30°C outcomes driven by divergent global model ensembles. The latest ECMWF and GFS runs project ensemble means of 23–26°C under partly sunny to overcast skies, but member spreads exceed 5°C due to variable cloud cover, potential light showers, and steering from mid-level troughs or ridging over the Sichuan Basin. Early April climatology shows average highs near 21°C, with historical outliers up to 28°C amid spring warming trends, though frontal passages could suppress peaks. Key differentiators include subsidence favoring 27–30°C versus persistent clouds limiting to 22–25°C; watch China Meteorological Administration updates and 12Z model refreshes tomorrow for shifts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Объем
$157Дата окончания
Apr 3, 2026Открытие рынка
Mar 29, 2026, 4:13 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUUResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects significant uncertainty in short-range forecasts for Chengdu's highest temperature on April 3, with implied probabilities closely clustered around 22–30°C outcomes driven by divergent global model ensembles. The latest ECMWF and GFS runs project ensemble means of 23–26°C under partly sunny to overcast skies, but member spreads exceed 5°C due to variable cloud cover, potential light showers, and steering from mid-level troughs or ridging over the Sichuan Basin. Early April climatology shows average highs near 21°C, with historical outliers up to 28°C amid spring warming trends, though frontal passages could suppress peaks. Key differentiators include subsidence favoring 27–30°C versus persistent clouds limiting to 22–25°C; watch China Meteorological Administration updates and 12Z model refreshes tomorrow for shifts.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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