Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in short-range forecasts for Shenzhen's highest temperature on April 5, with implied probabilities clustering around 26–28°C at 23–25% each, driven by divergent model outputs from China Meteorological Administration guidance and global ensembles like ECMWF. Recent Meteotrend projections pinpoint a 25–26°C high amid overcast skies, showers (up to 7 mm afternoon), and southerly winds enhancing humidity to 80%, capping daytime heating from South China Sea moisture inflow. Differentiating factors include potential sunny breaks allowing 28°C via urban heat island effects versus persistent cloud cover limiting to 26°C, against early April climatological averages of 26°C. New CMA updates and model runs expected daily could sharpen odds as resolution nears.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоHighest temperature in Shenzhen on April 5?
Highest temperature in Shenzhen on April 5?
28°C 24%
26°C 23%
27°C 20%
29°C 12%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
5 апр. 2026 г.
20°C or below
<1%
21°C
3%
22°C
3%
23°C
5%
24°C
7%
25°C
12%
26°C
23%
27°C
25%
28°C
24%
29°C
12%
30°C or higher
9%
28°C 24%
26°C 23%
27°C 20%
29°C 12%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
5 апр. 2026 г.
20°C or below
$557 Объем
<1%
21°C
$487 Объем
3%
22°C
$412 Объем
3%
23°C
$233 Объем
5%
24°C
$43 Объем
7%
25°C
$43 Объем
12%
26°C
$53 Объем
23%
27°C
$97 Объем
25%
28°C
$56 Объем
24%
29°C
$58 Объем
12%
30°C or higher
$56 Объем
9%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in short-range forecasts for Shenzhen's highest temperature on April 5, with implied probabilities clustering around 26–28°C at 23–25% each, driven by divergent model outputs from China Meteorological Administration guidance and global ensembles like ECMWF. Recent Meteotrend projections pinpoint a 25–26°C high amid overcast skies, showers (up to 7 mm afternoon), and southerly winds enhancing humidity to 80%, capping daytime heating from South China Sea moisture inflow. Differentiating factors include potential sunny breaks allowing 28°C via urban heat island effects versus persistent cloud cover limiting to 26°C, against early April climatological averages of 26°C. New CMA updates and model runs expected daily could sharpen odds as resolution nears.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: Apr 1, 2026, 6:41 AM ET
Объем
$2,096Дата окончания
5 апр. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 1, 2026, 6:41 AM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in short-range forecasts for Shenzhen's highest temperature on April 5, with implied probabilities clustering around 26–28°C at 23–25% each, driven by divergent model outputs from China Meteorological Administration guidance and global ensembles like ECMWF. Recent Meteotrend projections pinpoint a 25–26°C high amid overcast skies, showers (up to 7 mm afternoon), and southerly winds enhancing humidity to 80%, capping daytime heating from South China Sea moisture inflow. Differentiating factors include potential sunny breaks allowing 28°C via urban heat island effects versus persistent cloud cover limiting to 26°C, against early April climatological averages of 26°C. New CMA updates and model runs expected daily could sharpen odds as resolution nears.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Объем
$2,096Дата окончания
5 апр. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 1, 2026, 6:41 AM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in short-range forecasts for Shenzhen's highest temperature on April 5, with implied probabilities clustering around 26–28°C at 23–25% each, driven by divergent model outputs from China Meteorological Administration guidance and global ensembles like ECMWF. Recent Meteotrend projections pinpoint a 25–26°C high amid overcast skies, showers (up to 7 mm afternoon), and southerly winds enhancing humidity to 80%, capping daytime heating from South China Sea moisture inflow. Differentiating factors include potential sunny breaks allowing 28°C via urban heat island effects versus persistent cloud cover limiting to 26°C, against early April climatological averages of 26°C. New CMA updates and model runs expected daily could sharpen odds as resolution nears.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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