Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects the latest GFS and ECMWF ensemble forecasts converging on Istanbul highs of 12–14°C for April 5, cooler than the typical early April average of 15°C due to lingering cloud cover and drizzle from a recent low-pressure system over the Black Sea region. Recent observations—such as April 2 morning temperatures near 11°C with high humidity and precipitation—have reinforced this subdued trajectory, suppressing diurnal heating. Differentiating factors include the extent of afternoon cloud breaks, which could boost peaks toward 13–14°C via increased insolation, versus persistent overcast skies and northerly winds favoring 12°C. New model runs at 00Z/12Z and Turkish State Meteorological Service updates will clarify uncertainties before resolution.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоHighest temperature in Istanbul on April 5?
Highest temperature in Istanbul on April 5?
13°C 30%
12°C 26%
14°C 23%
15°C 17%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
5 апр. 2026 г.
10°C or below
2%
11°C
8%
12°C
30%
13°C
30%
14°C
23%
15°C
16%
16°C
5%
17°C
6%
18°C
3%
19°C
3%
20°C or higher
2%
13°C 30%
12°C 26%
14°C 23%
15°C 17%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
5 апр. 2026 г.
10°C or below
$129 Объем
2%
11°C
$61 Объем
8%
12°C
$59 Объем
30%
13°C
$118 Объем
30%
14°C
$45 Объем
23%
15°C
$187 Объем
16%
16°C
$61 Объем
5%
17°C
$58 Объем
6%
18°C
$58 Объем
3%
19°C
$135 Объем
3%
20°C or higher
$423 Объем
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 5 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects the latest GFS and ECMWF ensemble forecasts converging on Istanbul highs of 12–14°C for April 5, cooler than the typical early April average of 15°C due to lingering cloud cover and drizzle from a recent low-pressure system over the Black Sea region. Recent observations—such as April 2 morning temperatures near 11°C with high humidity and precipitation—have reinforced this subdued trajectory, suppressing diurnal heating. Differentiating factors include the extent of afternoon cloud breaks, which could boost peaks toward 13–14°C via increased insolation, versus persistent overcast skies and northerly winds favoring 12°C. New model runs at 00Z/12Z and Turkish State Meteorological Service updates will clarify uncertainties before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 5 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: Apr 1, 2026, 6:06 AM ET
Объем
$1,333Дата окончания
5 апр. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 1, 2026, 6:06 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 5 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects the latest GFS and ECMWF ensemble forecasts converging on Istanbul highs of 12–14°C for April 5, cooler than the typical early April average of 15°C due to lingering cloud cover and drizzle from a recent low-pressure system over the Black Sea region. Recent observations—such as April 2 morning temperatures near 11°C with high humidity and precipitation—have reinforced this subdued trajectory, suppressing diurnal heating. Differentiating factors include the extent of afternoon cloud breaks, which could boost peaks toward 13–14°C via increased insolation, versus persistent overcast skies and northerly winds favoring 12°C. New model runs at 00Z/12Z and Turkish State Meteorological Service updates will clarify uncertainties before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 5 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Объем
$1,333Дата окончания
5 апр. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 1, 2026, 6:06 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects the latest GFS and ECMWF ensemble forecasts converging on Istanbul highs of 12–14°C for April 5, cooler than the typical early April average of 15°C due to lingering cloud cover and drizzle from a recent low-pressure system over the Black Sea region. Recent observations—such as April 2 morning temperatures near 11°C with high humidity and precipitation—have reinforced this subdued trajectory, suppressing diurnal heating. Differentiating factors include the extent of afternoon cloud breaks, which could boost peaks toward 13–14°C via increased insolation, versus persistent overcast skies and northerly winds favoring 12°C. New model runs at 00Z/12Z and Turkish State Meteorological Service updates will clarify uncertainties before resolution.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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