Current forecast ensembles from ECMWF, GFS, and local China Meteorological Administration models project Shanghai's highest temperature on April 3 near 16°C, as an approaching frontal system boosts cloud cover and precipitation odds to 98-100%, limiting solar insolation and introducing cooler northerly air advection. This explains the tight trader consensus with market-implied odds favoring 16°C (27.5%), 17°C (24.0%), and 18°C (19.0%), capturing 70.5% probability amid 3-5°C spreads from uncertainties in frontal timing, boundary layer mixing, and exact cloud onset during peak diurnal heating. Early April climatology averages 18°C highs at the official Xujiahui station, but recent model runs highlight this cool-down after prior mild spells near 20-22°C. Daily forecast refreshes from CMA and new ensemble outputs expected within 24 hours could pivot sentiment further.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоHighest temperature in Shanghai on April 3?
Highest temperature in Shanghai on April 3?
16°C 31%
17°C 25%
18°C 20%
20°C or higher 15%
NEW
NEW
Apr 3, 2026
10°C or below
1%
11°C
5%
12°C
3%
13°C
7%
14°C
8%
15°C
9%
16°C
31%
17°C
25%
18°C
20%
19°C
14%
20°C or higher
15%
16°C 31%
17°C 25%
18°C 20%
20°C or higher 15%
NEW
NEW
Apr 3, 2026
10°C or below
$414 Объем
1%
11°C
$80 Объем
5%
12°C
$85 Объем
3%
13°C
$80 Объем
7%
14°C
$83 Объем
8%
15°C
$80 Объем
9%
16°C
$114 Объем
31%
17°C
$90 Объем
25%
18°C
$80 Объем
20%
19°C
$80 Объем
14%
20°C or higher
$80 Объем
15%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Current forecast ensembles from ECMWF, GFS, and local China Meteorological Administration models project Shanghai's highest temperature on April 3 near 16°C, as an approaching frontal system boosts cloud cover and precipitation odds to 98-100%, limiting solar insolation and introducing cooler northerly air advection. This explains the tight trader consensus with market-implied odds favoring 16°C (27.5%), 17°C (24.0%), and 18°C (19.0%), capturing 70.5% probability amid 3-5°C spreads from uncertainties in frontal timing, boundary layer mixing, and exact cloud onset during peak diurnal heating. Early April climatology averages 18°C highs at the official Xujiahui station, but recent model runs highlight this cool-down after prior mild spells near 20-22°C. Daily forecast refreshes from CMA and new ensemble outputs expected within 24 hours could pivot sentiment further.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: Mar 29, 2026, 2:54 PM ET
Объем
$1,256Дата окончания
Apr 3, 2026Открытие рынка
Mar 29, 2026, 2:54 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Current forecast ensembles from ECMWF, GFS, and local China Meteorological Administration models project Shanghai's highest temperature on April 3 near 16°C, as an approaching frontal system boosts cloud cover and precipitation odds to 98-100%, limiting solar insolation and introducing cooler northerly air advection. This explains the tight trader consensus with market-implied odds favoring 16°C (27.5%), 17°C (24.0%), and 18°C (19.0%), capturing 70.5% probability amid 3-5°C spreads from uncertainties in frontal timing, boundary layer mixing, and exact cloud onset during peak diurnal heating. Early April climatology averages 18°C highs at the official Xujiahui station, but recent model runs highlight this cool-down after prior mild spells near 20-22°C. Daily forecast refreshes from CMA and new ensemble outputs expected within 24 hours could pivot sentiment further.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Объем
$1,256Дата окончания
Apr 3, 2026Открытие рынка
Mar 29, 2026, 2:54 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current forecast ensembles from ECMWF, GFS, and local China Meteorological Administration models project Shanghai's highest temperature on April 3 near 16°C, as an approaching frontal system boosts cloud cover and precipitation odds to 98-100%, limiting solar insolation and introducing cooler northerly air advection. This explains the tight trader consensus with market-implied odds favoring 16°C (27.5%), 17°C (24.0%), and 18°C (19.0%), capturing 70.5% probability amid 3-5°C spreads from uncertainties in frontal timing, boundary layer mixing, and exact cloud onset during peak diurnal heating. Early April climatology averages 18°C highs at the official Xujiahui station, but recent model runs highlight this cool-down after prior mild spells near 20-22°C. Daily forecast refreshes from CMA and new ensemble outputs expected within 24 hours could pivot sentiment further.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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