Trader consensus on Polymarket prices closely around 11–13°C for London's highest temperature on April 3 reflects significant uncertainty in ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models, which diverge between 7°C under persistent cloud, showers, and westerly gusts from an Atlantic low-pressure trough, and up to 16°C if southeast ridging allows brighter breaks and increased insolation. Met Office guidance centers on 11–12°C amid 30–50% rain chances and climatological early April averages of 12–13°C, with recent model runs showing sensitivity to frontal timing, moisture advection, and upper-level patterns following March's warm spell. Key differentiators include sunshine hours penetrating low cloud and wind-driven temperature advection; monitor daily 12Z updates from NOAA's GFS and ECMWF for shifts ahead of resolution via official Heathrow observations.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоHighest temperature in London on April 3?
Highest temperature in London on April 3?
12°C 26%
11°C 24%
13°C 20%
9°C 17%
NEW
NEW
Apr 3, 2026
7°C or below
4%
8°C
10%
9°C
17%
10°C
17%
11°C
24%
12°C
26%
13°C
20%
14°C
10%
15°C
9%
16°C
9%
17°C or higher
9%
12°C 26%
11°C 24%
13°C 20%
9°C 17%
NEW
NEW
Apr 3, 2026
7°C or below
$252 Объем
4%
8°C
$15 Объем
10%
9°C
$26 Объем
17%
10°C
$0 Объем
17%
11°C
$0 Объем
24%
12°C
$0 Объем
26%
13°C
$0 Объем
20%
14°C
$0 Объем
10%
15°C
$9 Объем
9%
16°C
$8 Объем
9%
17°C or higher
$12 Объем
9%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices closely around 11–13°C for London's highest temperature on April 3 reflects significant uncertainty in ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models, which diverge between 7°C under persistent cloud, showers, and westerly gusts from an Atlantic low-pressure trough, and up to 16°C if southeast ridging allows brighter breaks and increased insolation. Met Office guidance centers on 11–12°C amid 30–50% rain chances and climatological early April averages of 12–13°C, with recent model runs showing sensitivity to frontal timing, moisture advection, and upper-level patterns following March's warm spell. Key differentiators include sunshine hours penetrating low cloud and wind-driven temperature advection; monitor daily 12Z updates from NOAA's GFS and ECMWF for shifts ahead of resolution via official Heathrow observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: Mar 29, 2026, 4:34 PM ET
Объем
$322Дата окончания
Apr 3, 2026Открытие рынка
Mar 29, 2026, 4:34 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices closely around 11–13°C for London's highest temperature on April 3 reflects significant uncertainty in ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models, which diverge between 7°C under persistent cloud, showers, and westerly gusts from an Atlantic low-pressure trough, and up to 16°C if southeast ridging allows brighter breaks and increased insolation. Met Office guidance centers on 11–12°C amid 30–50% rain chances and climatological early April averages of 12–13°C, with recent model runs showing sensitivity to frontal timing, moisture advection, and upper-level patterns following March's warm spell. Key differentiators include sunshine hours penetrating low cloud and wind-driven temperature advection; monitor daily 12Z updates from NOAA's GFS and ECMWF for shifts ahead of resolution via official Heathrow observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Объем
$322Дата окончания
Apr 3, 2026Открытие рынка
Mar 29, 2026, 4:34 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices closely around 11–13°C for London's highest temperature on April 3 reflects significant uncertainty in ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models, which diverge between 7°C under persistent cloud, showers, and westerly gusts from an Atlantic low-pressure trough, and up to 16°C if southeast ridging allows brighter breaks and increased insolation. Met Office guidance centers on 11–12°C amid 30–50% rain chances and climatological early April averages of 12–13°C, with recent model runs showing sensitivity to frontal timing, moisture advection, and upper-level patterns following March's warm spell. Key differentiators include sunshine hours penetrating low cloud and wind-driven temperature advection; monitor daily 12Z updates from NOAA's GFS and ECMWF for shifts ahead of resolution via official Heathrow observations.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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