Trader consensus on Polymarket places a 66.5% implied probability on a high of 58°F or higher at New York City's Central Park on April 4, driven by the latest GFS and ECMWF model runs clustering forecasts around 58-62°F under partly cloudy skies with light precipitation risks. This positioning reflects a broader warming trend following March's record-breaking warmth, including Central Park's earliest 80°F and recent 70°F readings, amid NOAA Climate Prediction Center week 3-4 outlooks favoring above-normal Northeast temperatures. Historical early April climatological normals hover near 57°F, but current ensemble guidance shows minimal cold air intrusion from high-amplitude upper-level patterns. Uncertainty persists with spring forecast divergence; monitor daily NWS updates and new 00z/12z model cycles for potential shifts ahead of resolution.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоHighest temperature in NYC on April 4?
Highest temperature in NYC on April 4?
58°F or higher 64%
54-55°F 12%
46-47°F 10%
56-57°F 10%
NEW
NEW
Apr 4, 2026
39°F or below
1%
40-41°F
1%
42-43°F
1%
44-45°F
1%
46-47°F
10%
48-49°F
8%
50-51°F
8%
52-53°F
8%
54-55°F
12%
56-57°F
10%
58°F or higher
64%
58°F or higher 64%
54-55°F 12%
46-47°F 10%
56-57°F 10%
NEW
NEW
Apr 4, 2026
39°F or below
$161 Объем
1%
40-41°F
$148 Объем
1%
42-43°F
$246 Объем
1%
44-45°F
$149 Объем
1%
46-47°F
$0 Объем
10%
48-49°F
$0 Объем
8%
50-51°F
$0 Объем
8%
52-53°F
$0 Объем
8%
54-55°F
$0 Объем
12%
56-57°F
$0 Объем
10%
58°F or higher
$5 Объем
64%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket places a 66.5% implied probability on a high of 58°F or higher at New York City's Central Park on April 4, driven by the latest GFS and ECMWF model runs clustering forecasts around 58-62°F under partly cloudy skies with light precipitation risks. This positioning reflects a broader warming trend following March's record-breaking warmth, including Central Park's earliest 80°F and recent 70°F readings, amid NOAA Climate Prediction Center week 3-4 outlooks favoring above-normal Northeast temperatures. Historical early April climatological normals hover near 57°F, but current ensemble guidance shows minimal cold air intrusion from high-amplitude upper-level patterns. Uncertainty persists with spring forecast divergence; monitor daily NWS updates and new 00z/12z model cycles for potential shifts ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: Mar 29, 2026, 3:35 PM ET
Объем
$709Дата окончания
Apr 4, 2026Открытие рынка
Mar 29, 2026, 3:35 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket places a 66.5% implied probability on a high of 58°F or higher at New York City's Central Park on April 4, driven by the latest GFS and ECMWF model runs clustering forecasts around 58-62°F under partly cloudy skies with light precipitation risks. This positioning reflects a broader warming trend following March's record-breaking warmth, including Central Park's earliest 80°F and recent 70°F readings, amid NOAA Climate Prediction Center week 3-4 outlooks favoring above-normal Northeast temperatures. Historical early April climatological normals hover near 57°F, but current ensemble guidance shows minimal cold air intrusion from high-amplitude upper-level patterns. Uncertainty persists with spring forecast divergence; monitor daily NWS updates and new 00z/12z model cycles for potential shifts ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Объем
$709Дата окончания
Apr 4, 2026Открытие рынка
Mar 29, 2026, 3:35 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket places a 66.5% implied probability on a high of 58°F or higher at New York City's Central Park on April 4, driven by the latest GFS and ECMWF model runs clustering forecasts around 58-62°F under partly cloudy skies with light precipitation risks. This positioning reflects a broader warming trend following March's record-breaking warmth, including Central Park's earliest 80°F and recent 70°F readings, amid NOAA Climate Prediction Center week 3-4 outlooks favoring above-normal Northeast temperatures. Historical early April climatological normals hover near 57°F, but current ensemble guidance shows minimal cold air intrusion from high-amplitude upper-level patterns. Uncertainty persists with spring forecast divergence; monitor daily NWS updates and new 00z/12z model cycles for potential shifts ahead of resolution.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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