Latest Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) short-range forecasts and ensemble runs from GFS and ECMWF models project Tokyo's highest temperature on April 3 clustering around 17-19°C, mirroring the tight trader consensus with 17°C, 18°C, and 19°C leading at 22.5-23.5% implied probabilities. This positioning stems from persistent mild spring conditions over the Kanto Plain, featuring a weak high-pressure ridge aloft that supports daytime highs near climatological norms of 17°C for early April at official AMEDAS stations like Haneda. Key differentiators include model spread on cloud cover—patchy low-level stratus could cap peaks at 16-17°C via reduced insolation, while clearer skies and light southerly winds favor 19-20°C. Inherent forecast uncertainty at 4-day lead times, with standard deviations of 3°C historically, keeps lower and higher buckets viable; daily JMA updates and fresh global model cycles every 6-12 hours will sharpen guidance.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоHighest temperature in Tokyo on April 3?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on April 3?
17°C 24%
18°C 24%
19°C 22%
16°C 18%
NEW
NEW
Apr 3, 2026
11°C or below
1%
12°C
4%
13°C
9%
14°C
9%
15°C
15%
16°C
18%
17°C
24%
18°C
24%
19°C
22%
20°C
18%
21°C or higher
12%
17°C 24%
18°C 24%
19°C 22%
16°C 18%
NEW
NEW
Apr 3, 2026
11°C or below
$234 Объем
1%
12°C
$97 Объем
4%
13°C
$0 Объем
9%
14°C
$0 Объем
9%
15°C
$0 Объем
15%
16°C
$0 Объем
18%
17°C
$0 Объем
24%
18°C
$0 Объем
24%
19°C
$0 Объем
22%
20°C
$0 Объем
18%
21°C or higher
$0 Объем
12%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) short-range forecasts and ensemble runs from GFS and ECMWF models project Tokyo's highest temperature on April 3 clustering around 17-19°C, mirroring the tight trader consensus with 17°C, 18°C, and 19°C leading at 22.5-23.5% implied probabilities. This positioning stems from persistent mild spring conditions over the Kanto Plain, featuring a weak high-pressure ridge aloft that supports daytime highs near climatological norms of 17°C for early April at official AMEDAS stations like Haneda. Key differentiators include model spread on cloud cover—patchy low-level stratus could cap peaks at 16-17°C via reduced insolation, while clearer skies and light southerly winds favor 19-20°C. Inherent forecast uncertainty at 4-day lead times, with standard deviations of 3°C historically, keeps lower and higher buckets viable; daily JMA updates and fresh global model cycles every 6-12 hours will sharpen guidance.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: Mar 29, 2026, 3:32 PM ET
Объем
$331Дата окончания
Apr 3, 2026Открытие рынка
Mar 29, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) short-range forecasts and ensemble runs from GFS and ECMWF models project Tokyo's highest temperature on April 3 clustering around 17-19°C, mirroring the tight trader consensus with 17°C, 18°C, and 19°C leading at 22.5-23.5% implied probabilities. This positioning stems from persistent mild spring conditions over the Kanto Plain, featuring a weak high-pressure ridge aloft that supports daytime highs near climatological norms of 17°C for early April at official AMEDAS stations like Haneda. Key differentiators include model spread on cloud cover—patchy low-level stratus could cap peaks at 16-17°C via reduced insolation, while clearer skies and light southerly winds favor 19-20°C. Inherent forecast uncertainty at 4-day lead times, with standard deviations of 3°C historically, keeps lower and higher buckets viable; daily JMA updates and fresh global model cycles every 6-12 hours will sharpen guidance.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Объем
$331Дата окончания
Apr 3, 2026Открытие рынка
Mar 29, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) short-range forecasts and ensemble runs from GFS and ECMWF models project Tokyo's highest temperature on April 3 clustering around 17-19°C, mirroring the tight trader consensus with 17°C, 18°C, and 19°C leading at 22.5-23.5% implied probabilities. This positioning stems from persistent mild spring conditions over the Kanto Plain, featuring a weak high-pressure ridge aloft that supports daytime highs near climatological norms of 17°C for early April at official AMEDAS stations like Haneda. Key differentiators include model spread on cloud cover—patchy low-level stratus could cap peaks at 16-17°C via reduced insolation, while clearer skies and light southerly winds favor 19-20°C. Inherent forecast uncertainty at 4-day lead times, with standard deviations of 3°C historically, keeps lower and higher buckets viable; daily JMA updates and fresh global model cycles every 6-12 hours will sharpen guidance.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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