Latest forecast ensembles from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and NOAA's Global Forecast System (GFS) project Istanbul highs near 19-20°C on April 6, driven by anticipated ridging and southerly airflow displacing recent cool, showery conditions observed through April 1-2, boosting trader consensus to 50% for 21°C or higher amid model warm biases and historical April variability (averages ~16°C). The 25.5% implied odds for 11°C or below capture ensemble spread from potential persistent cloud cover or northerly gusts, with mid-range outcomes (12-20°C) clustered lower due to uncertainty in exact peak heating. Turkish State Meteorological Service updates and fresh model runs over the next 48 hours will sharpen resolution criteria based on official airport observations.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоСамая высокая температура в Стамбуле 6 апреля?
Самая высокая температура в Стамбуле 6 апреля?
13°C 13%
14°C 13%
19°C 11%
15°C 10%
11°C или ниже
1%
12°C
1%
13°C
13%
14°C
13%
15°C
10%
16°C
9%
17°C
10%
18°C
9%
19°C
11%
20°C
7%
21°C или выше
7%
13°C 13%
14°C 13%
19°C 11%
15°C 10%
11°C или ниже
1%
12°C
1%
13°C
13%
14°C
13%
15°C
10%
16°C
9%
17°C
10%
18°C
9%
19°C
11%
20°C
7%
21°C или выше
7%
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: Apr 2, 2026, 6:04 AM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest forecast ensembles from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and NOAA's Global Forecast System (GFS) project Istanbul highs near 19-20°C on April 6, driven by anticipated ridging and southerly airflow displacing recent cool, showery conditions observed through April 1-2, boosting trader consensus to 50% for 21°C or higher amid model warm biases and historical April variability (averages ~16°C). The 25.5% implied odds for 11°C or below capture ensemble spread from potential persistent cloud cover or northerly gusts, with mid-range outcomes (12-20°C) clustered lower due to uncertainty in exact peak heating. Turkish State Meteorological Service updates and fresh model runs over the next 48 hours will sharpen resolution criteria based on official airport observations.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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