Latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts for Warsaw on April 6 indicate mean maximum temperatures near 12-14°C, but wide member spreads—from below 8°C to above 16°C—capture the inherent uncertainty in early spring weather patterns over Central Europe. This model divergence, with no strong consensus on mid-level troughing or ridging, explains the closely matched trader probabilities across 9°C (14.5%) and 15°C (14.5%), alongside nearby outcomes, reflecting potential northerly cold air advection versus southerly warm flows. Historical early April highs average 11-13°C at Warsaw Chopin Airport, aligning with the market cluster while low odds on extremes (7°C or below at 12%, 17°C+ at 1.5%) underscore climatological rarity. Traders await daily updates from the National Hurricane Center—no, wait, IMGW and global models, plus any shifts in jet stream positioning, ahead of resolution based on official airport observations.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоHighest temperature in Warsaw on April 6?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on April 6?
15°C 15%
9°C 14%
7°C or below 12%
14°C 11%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
6 апр. 2026 г.
7°C or below
12%
8°C
10%
9°C
14%
10°C
9%
11°C
10%
12°C
10%
13°C
10%
14°C
11%
15°C
15%
16°C
11%
17°C or higher
2%
15°C 15%
9°C 14%
7°C or below 12%
14°C 11%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
6 апр. 2026 г.
7°C or below
$0 Объем
12%
8°C
$0 Объем
10%
9°C
$1 Объем
14%
10°C
$0 Объем
9%
11°C
$0 Объем
10%
12°C
$0 Объем
10%
13°C
$0 Объем
10%
14°C
$0 Объем
11%
15°C
$0 Объем
15%
16°C
$0 Объем
11%
17°C or higher
$0 Объем
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts for Warsaw on April 6 indicate mean maximum temperatures near 12-14°C, but wide member spreads—from below 8°C to above 16°C—capture the inherent uncertainty in early spring weather patterns over Central Europe. This model divergence, with no strong consensus on mid-level troughing or ridging, explains the closely matched trader probabilities across 9°C (14.5%) and 15°C (14.5%), alongside nearby outcomes, reflecting potential northerly cold air advection versus southerly warm flows. Historical early April highs average 11-13°C at Warsaw Chopin Airport, aligning with the market cluster while low odds on extremes (7°C or below at 12%, 17°C+ at 1.5%) underscore climatological rarity. Traders await daily updates from the National Hurricane Center—no, wait, IMGW and global models, plus any shifts in jet stream positioning, ahead of resolution based on official airport observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: Apr 2, 2026, 6:13 AM ET
Объем
$0Дата окончания
6 апр. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 2, 2026, 6:13 AM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts for Warsaw on April 6 indicate mean maximum temperatures near 12-14°C, but wide member spreads—from below 8°C to above 16°C—capture the inherent uncertainty in early spring weather patterns over Central Europe. This model divergence, with no strong consensus on mid-level troughing or ridging, explains the closely matched trader probabilities across 9°C (14.5%) and 15°C (14.5%), alongside nearby outcomes, reflecting potential northerly cold air advection versus southerly warm flows. Historical early April highs average 11-13°C at Warsaw Chopin Airport, aligning with the market cluster while low odds on extremes (7°C or below at 12%, 17°C+ at 1.5%) underscore climatological rarity. Traders await daily updates from the National Hurricane Center—no, wait, IMGW and global models, plus any shifts in jet stream positioning, ahead of resolution based on official airport observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Объем
$0Дата окончания
6 апр. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 2, 2026, 6:13 AM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts for Warsaw on April 6 indicate mean maximum temperatures near 12-14°C, but wide member spreads—from below 8°C to above 16°C—capture the inherent uncertainty in early spring weather patterns over Central Europe. This model divergence, with no strong consensus on mid-level troughing or ridging, explains the closely matched trader probabilities across 9°C (14.5%) and 15°C (14.5%), alongside nearby outcomes, reflecting potential northerly cold air advection versus southerly warm flows. Historical early April highs average 11-13°C at Warsaw Chopin Airport, aligning with the market cluster while low odds on extremes (7°C or below at 12%, 17°C+ at 1.5%) underscore climatological rarity. Traders await daily updates from the National Hurricane Center—no, wait, IMGW and global models, plus any shifts in jet stream positioning, ahead of resolution based on official airport observations.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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