Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 41% implied probability for Warsaw's highest temperature reaching 20°C or higher on April 4, driven by the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts indicating a possible high-pressure ridge over Central Europe, fostering southerly winds and above-normal highs amid recent March warmth 3.5°C above average. However, model spread reflects uncertainty, with some runs showing northerly flow capping peaks near 10-15°C, aligning with the 24% odds for 10°C or below and mid-teens outcomes at 17-20%. Historical early April averages hover around 13°C on the Saffir-Simpson precursor variability scale for spring transitions. Watch daily updates from IMGW and NOAA for refined guidance ahead of resolution via official Warsaw station data.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоHighest temperature in Warsaw on April 4?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on April 4?
10°C or below 32%
20°C or higher 25.0%
14°C 22%
17°C 21%
10°C or below
32%
11°C
13%
12°C
13%
13°C
16%
14°C
22%
15°C
19%
16°C
16%
17°C
21%
18°C
13%
19°C
11%
20°C or higher
25%
10°C or below 32%
20°C or higher 25.0%
14°C 22%
17°C 21%
10°C or below
32%
11°C
13%
12°C
13%
13°C
16%
14°C
22%
15°C
19%
16°C
16%
17°C
21%
18°C
13%
19°C
11%
20°C or higher
25%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: Mar 29, 2026, 2:36 PM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 41% implied probability for Warsaw's highest temperature reaching 20°C or higher on April 4, driven by the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts indicating a possible high-pressure ridge over Central Europe, fostering southerly winds and above-normal highs amid recent March warmth 3.5°C above average. However, model spread reflects uncertainty, with some runs showing northerly flow capping peaks near 10-15°C, aligning with the 24% odds for 10°C or below and mid-teens outcomes at 17-20%. Historical early April averages hover around 13°C on the Saffir-Simpson precursor variability scale for spring transitions. Watch daily updates from IMGW and NOAA for refined guidance ahead of resolution via official Warsaw station data.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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