Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects the tight spread in latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts for Warsaw, with mean highs near 13–14°C but significant model divergence yielding 10–17°C possibilities due to uncertain upper-air patterns over Central Europe. Early April climatology supports this, as historical highs average 12°C on April 3 at Warsaw Chopin Airport, influenced by transitional spring air masses from variable North Atlantic flows—milder ridging could push toward 17°C or higher, while persistent cloud cover or northerly winds favor 11–12°C. IMGW guidance echoes this uncertainty, with no dominant signal amid recent mild March trends. Watch daily model updates through April 1 for refined probabilities ahead of resolution.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоHighest temperature in Warsaw on April 3?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on April 3?
13°C 31%
12°C 22%
14°C 22%
17°C or higher 21%
7°C or below
1%
8°C
17%
9°C
18%
10°C
9%
11°C
18%
12°C
22%
13°C
31%
14°C
22%
15°C
19%
16°C
11%
17°C or higher
21%
13°C 31%
12°C 22%
14°C 22%
17°C or higher 21%
7°C or below
1%
8°C
17%
9°C
18%
10°C
9%
11°C
18%
12°C
22%
13°C
31%
14°C
22%
15°C
19%
16°C
11%
17°C or higher
21%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: Mar 29, 2026, 2:43 PM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects the tight spread in latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts for Warsaw, with mean highs near 13–14°C but significant model divergence yielding 10–17°C possibilities due to uncertain upper-air patterns over Central Europe. Early April climatology supports this, as historical highs average 12°C on April 3 at Warsaw Chopin Airport, influenced by transitional spring air masses from variable North Atlantic flows—milder ridging could push toward 17°C or higher, while persistent cloud cover or northerly winds favor 11–12°C. IMGW guidance echoes this uncertainty, with no dominant signal amid recent mild March trends. Watch daily model updates through April 1 for refined probabilities ahead of resolution.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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