**Latest ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and Global Forecast System (GFS), corroborated by Poland's Institute of Meteorology and Water Management (IMGW), project Warsaw's highest temperature on April 1 at 12–14°C under mild southerly flow and building high pressure, fueling the 65% market-implied odds for 12°C or higher as trader consensus on a typical early spring day.** This positioning reflects convergence in the past 24 hours' model runs, which shifted warmer from prior cooler outlooks amid recent stabilization after late March variability. Climatological averages hover near 11–12°C for April 1, with outcomes like 11°C (24%) and 10°C (11.5%) viable if cloud cover increases or northerly winds persist. Inherent short-range uncertainty remains, with daily updates from IMGW and ECMWF expected to refine probabilities ahead of resolution using official Chopin Airport observations.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоHighest temperature in Warsaw on April 1?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on April 1?
12°C or higher 67%
11°C 23%
9°C 12%
10°C 9%
2°C or below
1%
3°C
1%
4°C
1%
5°C
1%
6°C
1%
7°C
9%
8°C
8%
9°C
12%
10°C
9%
11°C
23%
12°C or higher
67%
12°C or higher 67%
11°C 23%
9°C 12%
10°C 9%
2°C or below
1%
3°C
1%
4°C
1%
5°C
1%
6°C
1%
7°C
9%
8°C
8%
9°C
12%
10°C
9%
11°C
23%
12°C or higher
67%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: Mar 29, 2026, 2:50 PM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Latest ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and Global Forecast System (GFS), corroborated by Poland's Institute of Meteorology and Water Management (IMGW), project Warsaw's highest temperature on April 1 at 12–14°C under mild southerly flow and building high pressure, fueling the 65% market-implied odds for 12°C or higher as trader consensus on a typical early spring day.** This positioning reflects convergence in the past 24 hours' model runs, which shifted warmer from prior cooler outlooks amid recent stabilization after late March variability. Climatological averages hover near 11–12°C for April 1, with outcomes like 11°C (24%) and 10°C (11.5%) viable if cloud cover increases or northerly winds persist. Inherent short-range uncertainty remains, with daily updates from IMGW and ECMWF expected to refine probabilities ahead of resolution using official Chopin Airport observations.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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