National Weather Service forecasts and ensemble model guidance from NOAA's GFS and ECMWF position Chicago O'Hare's highest temperature on April 2 near 48°F, aligning with the market's 51.5% implied probability for 48°F or higher as trader consensus. This reflects a persistent upper-level trough over the Great Lakes suppressing highs below the 54°F climatological normal, amid recent model runs over the past 48 hours trending slightly cooler due to increased cloud cover and onshore flow from Lake Michigan. Lower outcomes like 38-39°F (11.5%) gain traction from ECMWF outliers showing deeper cold air advection, while genuine uncertainty persists in 5-10°F ensemble spreads influenced by boundary layer dynamics and frontal timing. Watch for twice-daily NWS updates and 00Z/12Z model refreshes resolving market swings.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоHighest temperature in Chicago on April 2?
Highest temperature in Chicago on April 2?
48°F or higher 52%
38-39°F 11.5%
46-47°F 11%
40-41°F 11%
NEW
NEW
Apr 2, 2026
29°F or below
1%
30-31°F
1%
32-33°F
1%
34-35°F
1%
36-37°F
3%
38-39°F
11%
40-41°F
11%
42-43°F
10%
44-45°F
10%
46-47°F
11%
48°F or higher
52%
48°F or higher 52%
38-39°F 11.5%
46-47°F 11%
40-41°F 11%
NEW
NEW
Apr 2, 2026
29°F or below
$186 Объем
1%
30-31°F
$276 Объем
1%
32-33°F
$177 Объем
1%
34-35°F
$287 Объем
1%
36-37°F
$655 Объем
3%
38-39°F
$725 Объем
11%
40-41°F
$444 Объем
11%
42-43°F
$516 Объем
10%
44-45°F
$19 Объем
10%
46-47°F
$15 Объем
11%
48°F or higher
$249 Объем
52%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 2 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.National Weather Service forecasts and ensemble model guidance from NOAA's GFS and ECMWF position Chicago O'Hare's highest temperature on April 2 near 48°F, aligning with the market's 51.5% implied probability for 48°F or higher as trader consensus. This reflects a persistent upper-level trough over the Great Lakes suppressing highs below the 54°F climatological normal, amid recent model runs over the past 48 hours trending slightly cooler due to increased cloud cover and onshore flow from Lake Michigan. Lower outcomes like 38-39°F (11.5%) gain traction from ECMWF outliers showing deeper cold air advection, while genuine uncertainty persists in 5-10°F ensemble spreads influenced by boundary layer dynamics and frontal timing. Watch for twice-daily NWS updates and 00Z/12Z model refreshes resolving market swings.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 2 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: Mar 29, 2026, 2:22 PM ET
Объем
$3,550Дата окончания
Apr 2, 2026Открытие рынка
Mar 29, 2026, 2:22 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 2 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.National Weather Service forecasts and ensemble model guidance from NOAA's GFS and ECMWF position Chicago O'Hare's highest temperature on April 2 near 48°F, aligning with the market's 51.5% implied probability for 48°F or higher as trader consensus. This reflects a persistent upper-level trough over the Great Lakes suppressing highs below the 54°F climatological normal, amid recent model runs over the past 48 hours trending slightly cooler due to increased cloud cover and onshore flow from Lake Michigan. Lower outcomes like 38-39°F (11.5%) gain traction from ECMWF outliers showing deeper cold air advection, while genuine uncertainty persists in 5-10°F ensemble spreads influenced by boundary layer dynamics and frontal timing. Watch for twice-daily NWS updates and 00Z/12Z model refreshes resolving market swings.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 2 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Объем
$3,550Дата окончания
Apr 2, 2026Открытие рынка
Mar 29, 2026, 2:22 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...National Weather Service forecasts and ensemble model guidance from NOAA's GFS and ECMWF position Chicago O'Hare's highest temperature on April 2 near 48°F, aligning with the market's 51.5% implied probability for 48°F or higher as trader consensus. This reflects a persistent upper-level trough over the Great Lakes suppressing highs below the 54°F climatological normal, amid recent model runs over the past 48 hours trending slightly cooler due to increased cloud cover and onshore flow from Lake Michigan. Lower outcomes like 38-39°F (11.5%) gain traction from ECMWF outliers showing deeper cold air advection, while genuine uncertainty persists in 5-10°F ensemble spreads influenced by boundary layer dynamics and frontal timing. Watch for twice-daily NWS updates and 00Z/12Z model refreshes resolving market swings.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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