Latest National Weather Service Chicago office forecasts and ensemble model consensus from GFS and ECMWF indicate a high temperature near 52-54°F on April 1, aligning with climatological normals of 53.3°F at O'Hare International Airport and driving the 42% implied probability for 52°F or higher as the trader-favored outcome. This positioning reflects NOAA Climate Prediction Center's spring outlook from March 20 favoring above-normal temperatures across the Midwest amid transitioning upper-air patterns, following March's variable conditions with mid-40s highs in recent days and earlier warm spikes. Uncertainty persists due to model spread over cloud cover, weak frontal timing, and lake influence, with 16% odds each for 46-47°F and 48-49°F capturing potential cooler scenarios; watch for updated 12z model runs and NWS advisories resolving on the official observed maximum.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоHighest temperature in Chicago on April 1?
Highest temperature in Chicago on April 1?
52°F or higher 39%
50-51°F 19%
48-49°F 18%
46-47°F 15%
NEW
NEW
Apr 1, 2026
33°F or below
<1%
34-35°F
1%
36-37°F
1%
38-39°F
6%
40-41°F
6%
42-43°F
11%
44-45°F
14%
46-47°F
15%
48-49°F
18%
50-51°F
19%
52°F or higher
39%
52°F or higher 39%
50-51°F 19%
48-49°F 18%
46-47°F 15%
NEW
NEW
Apr 1, 2026
33°F or below
$558 Объем
<1%
34-35°F
$451 Объем
1%
36-37°F
$489 Объем
1%
38-39°F
$201 Объем
6%
40-41°F
$124 Объем
6%
42-43°F
$121 Объем
11%
44-45°F
$103 Объем
14%
46-47°F
$110 Объем
15%
48-49°F
$153 Объем
18%
50-51°F
$155 Объем
19%
52°F or higher
$402 Объем
39%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 1 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest National Weather Service Chicago office forecasts and ensemble model consensus from GFS and ECMWF indicate a high temperature near 52-54°F on April 1, aligning with climatological normals of 53.3°F at O'Hare International Airport and driving the 42% implied probability for 52°F or higher as the trader-favored outcome. This positioning reflects NOAA Climate Prediction Center's spring outlook from March 20 favoring above-normal temperatures across the Midwest amid transitioning upper-air patterns, following March's variable conditions with mid-40s highs in recent days and earlier warm spikes. Uncertainty persists due to model spread over cloud cover, weak frontal timing, and lake influence, with 16% odds each for 46-47°F and 48-49°F capturing potential cooler scenarios; watch for updated 12z model runs and NWS advisories resolving on the official observed maximum.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 1 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: Mar 29, 2026, 2:29 PM ET
Объем
$2,867Дата окончания
Apr 1, 2026Открытие рынка
Mar 29, 2026, 2:29 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 1 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest National Weather Service Chicago office forecasts and ensemble model consensus from GFS and ECMWF indicate a high temperature near 52-54°F on April 1, aligning with climatological normals of 53.3°F at O'Hare International Airport and driving the 42% implied probability for 52°F or higher as the trader-favored outcome. This positioning reflects NOAA Climate Prediction Center's spring outlook from March 20 favoring above-normal temperatures across the Midwest amid transitioning upper-air patterns, following March's variable conditions with mid-40s highs in recent days and earlier warm spikes. Uncertainty persists due to model spread over cloud cover, weak frontal timing, and lake influence, with 16% odds each for 46-47°F and 48-49°F capturing potential cooler scenarios; watch for updated 12z model runs and NWS advisories resolving on the official observed maximum.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 1 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Объем
$2,867Дата окончания
Apr 1, 2026Открытие рынка
Mar 29, 2026, 2:29 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest National Weather Service Chicago office forecasts and ensemble model consensus from GFS and ECMWF indicate a high temperature near 52-54°F on April 1, aligning with climatological normals of 53.3°F at O'Hare International Airport and driving the 42% implied probability for 52°F or higher as the trader-favored outcome. This positioning reflects NOAA Climate Prediction Center's spring outlook from March 20 favoring above-normal temperatures across the Midwest amid transitioning upper-air patterns, following March's variable conditions with mid-40s highs in recent days and earlier warm spikes. Uncertainty persists due to model spread over cloud cover, weak frontal timing, and lake influence, with 16% odds each for 46-47°F and 48-49°F capturing potential cooler scenarios; watch for updated 12z model runs and NWS advisories resolving on the official observed maximum.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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