The balanced market-implied odds, with 21°C or below and 31°C or higher both at 25.5%, capture substantial uncertainty in short-range forecasts for Shenzhen's April 6 high temperature amid its subtropical monsoon climate. China Meteorological Administration guidance indicates moderate rain and southwest winds on that date, promoting low-level moisture advection from the South China Sea and cloud cover that could suppress peaks to the low 20s°C through reduced insolation. However, GFS and ECMWF ensemble members diverge, with some drier slots under weak ridging allowing urban heat island effects and sea breezes to drive highs past 30°C. Climatological averages hover near 26°C, but daily variability from convective showers differentiates outcomes; monitor CMA updates and 00Z model runs through April 5 for refinement.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоHighest temperature in Shenzhen on April 6?
Highest temperature in Shenzhen on April 6?
31°C or higher 27%
27°C 16%
28°C 14%
26°C 11%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
6 апр. 2026 г.
21°C or below
3%
22°C
3%
23°C
8%
24°C
8%
25°C
10%
26°C
11%
27°C
16%
28°C
14%
29°C
10%
30°C
11%
31°C or higher
27%
31°C or higher 27%
27°C 16%
28°C 14%
26°C 11%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
6 апр. 2026 г.
21°C or below
$227 Объем
3%
22°C
$23 Объем
3%
23°C
$24 Объем
8%
24°C
$5 Объем
8%
25°C
$1 Объем
10%
26°C
$0 Объем
11%
27°C
$0 Объем
16%
28°C
$0 Объем
14%
29°C
$0 Объем
10%
30°C
$0 Объем
11%
31°C or higher
$1 Объем
27%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.The balanced market-implied odds, with 21°C or below and 31°C or higher both at 25.5%, capture substantial uncertainty in short-range forecasts for Shenzhen's April 6 high temperature amid its subtropical monsoon climate. China Meteorological Administration guidance indicates moderate rain and southwest winds on that date, promoting low-level moisture advection from the South China Sea and cloud cover that could suppress peaks to the low 20s°C through reduced insolation. However, GFS and ECMWF ensemble members diverge, with some drier slots under weak ridging allowing urban heat island effects and sea breezes to drive highs past 30°C. Climatological averages hover near 26°C, but daily variability from convective showers differentiates outcomes; monitor CMA updates and 00Z model runs through April 5 for refinement.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: Apr 2, 2026, 6:18 AM ET
Объем
$282Дата окончания
6 апр. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 2, 2026, 6:18 AM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.The balanced market-implied odds, with 21°C or below and 31°C or higher both at 25.5%, capture substantial uncertainty in short-range forecasts for Shenzhen's April 6 high temperature amid its subtropical monsoon climate. China Meteorological Administration guidance indicates moderate rain and southwest winds on that date, promoting low-level moisture advection from the South China Sea and cloud cover that could suppress peaks to the low 20s°C through reduced insolation. However, GFS and ECMWF ensemble members diverge, with some drier slots under weak ridging allowing urban heat island effects and sea breezes to drive highs past 30°C. Climatological averages hover near 26°C, but daily variability from convective showers differentiates outcomes; monitor CMA updates and 00Z model runs through April 5 for refinement.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Объем
$282Дата окончания
6 апр. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 2, 2026, 6:18 AM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZResolver
0x69c47De9D...The balanced market-implied odds, with 21°C or below and 31°C or higher both at 25.5%, capture substantial uncertainty in short-range forecasts for Shenzhen's April 6 high temperature amid its subtropical monsoon climate. China Meteorological Administration guidance indicates moderate rain and southwest winds on that date, promoting low-level moisture advection from the South China Sea and cloud cover that could suppress peaks to the low 20s°C through reduced insolation. However, GFS and ECMWF ensemble members diverge, with some drier slots under weak ridging allowing urban heat island effects and sea breezes to drive highs past 30°C. Climatological averages hover near 26°C, but daily variability from convective showers differentiates outcomes; monitor CMA updates and 00Z model runs through April 5 for refinement.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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