Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects substantial uncertainty in short-term forecasts for Moscow's highest temperature on April 6, with implied probabilities peaking at 25.5% for both ≤5°C (cold snap) and ≥15°C (warm surge), amid divergent ensemble model outputs from GFS and ECMWF. Recent Rosgidromet updates show a cooling trend after late-March warmth exceeding 17°C nearby, with current 500 hPa charts indicating potential northerly Arctic airflow versus blocking highs that could trap warmer air. Historical early-April averages hover at 9–11°C on the Saffir-Simpson precursor scales for variability, but spring jet stream waviness amplifies risks of 10–15°C swings. Daily model refreshes through April 4 will clarify steering patterns and refine trader positioning.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоHighest temperature in Moscow on April 6?
Highest temperature in Moscow on April 6?
12°C 18%
15°C or higher 18%
13°C 17%
7°C 16%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
6 апр. 2026 г.
5°C or below
13%
6°C
14%
7°C
17%
8°C
19%
9°C
19%
10°C
19%
11°C
19%
12°C
18%
13°C
17%
14°C
13%
15°C or higher
18%
12°C 18%
15°C or higher 18%
13°C 17%
7°C 16%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
6 апр. 2026 г.
5°C or below
$5 Объем
13%
6°C
$0 Объем
14%
7°C
$10 Объем
17%
8°C
$10 Объем
19%
9°C
$10 Объем
19%
10°C
$10 Объем
19%
11°C
$10 Объем
19%
12°C
$0 Объем
18%
13°C
$0 Объем
17%
14°C
$0 Объем
13%
15°C or higher
$5 Объем
18%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 6 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects substantial uncertainty in short-term forecasts for Moscow's highest temperature on April 6, with implied probabilities peaking at 25.5% for both ≤5°C (cold snap) and ≥15°C (warm surge), amid divergent ensemble model outputs from GFS and ECMWF. Recent Rosgidromet updates show a cooling trend after late-March warmth exceeding 17°C nearby, with current 500 hPa charts indicating potential northerly Arctic airflow versus blocking highs that could trap warmer air. Historical early-April averages hover at 9–11°C on the Saffir-Simpson precursor scales for variability, but spring jet stream waviness amplifies risks of 10–15°C swings. Daily model refreshes through April 4 will clarify steering patterns and refine trader positioning.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 6 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: Apr 2, 2026, 6:37 AM ET
Объем
$60Дата окончания
6 апр. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 2, 2026, 6:37 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 6 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects substantial uncertainty in short-term forecasts for Moscow's highest temperature on April 6, with implied probabilities peaking at 25.5% for both ≤5°C (cold snap) and ≥15°C (warm surge), amid divergent ensemble model outputs from GFS and ECMWF. Recent Rosgidromet updates show a cooling trend after late-March warmth exceeding 17°C nearby, with current 500 hPa charts indicating potential northerly Arctic airflow versus blocking highs that could trap warmer air. Historical early-April averages hover at 9–11°C on the Saffir-Simpson precursor scales for variability, but spring jet stream waviness amplifies risks of 10–15°C swings. Daily model refreshes through April 4 will clarify steering patterns and refine trader positioning.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 6 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Объем
$60Дата окончания
6 апр. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 2, 2026, 6:37 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects substantial uncertainty in short-term forecasts for Moscow's highest temperature on April 6, with implied probabilities peaking at 25.5% for both ≤5°C (cold snap) and ≥15°C (warm surge), amid divergent ensemble model outputs from GFS and ECMWF. Recent Rosgidromet updates show a cooling trend after late-March warmth exceeding 17°C nearby, with current 500 hPa charts indicating potential northerly Arctic airflow versus blocking highs that could trap warmer air. Historical early-April averages hover at 9–11°C on the Saffir-Simpson precursor scales for variability, but spring jet stream waviness amplifies risks of 10–15°C swings. Daily model refreshes through April 4 will clarify steering patterns and refine trader positioning.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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