Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns an 82% implied probability to a high of 11°C or higher in Moscow on April 3, driven by recent Hydrometcenter of Russia forecasts indicating temperatures exceeding early April climatological averages of about 9°C by 7–8°C under a developing high-pressure ridge and southerly airflow. Late-March observations above 10°C signal a mild continental spring pattern persisting, with ECMWF and GFS ensembles clustering warmer outcomes despite spreads toward 6–10°C from potential jet stream variability or cloud cover. Lower probabilities for cooler readings (e.g., 15.5% at 10°C, 13.5% at 8–9°C) reflect acknowledged forecast uncertainty in volatile early spring conditions. Key updates from NOAA and Russian agencies every 12 hours, plus official Balchug station measurements, will sharpen resolution ahead of the date.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоHighest temperature in Moscow on April 3?
Highest temperature in Moscow on April 3?
11°C or higher 83%
3°C 6%
10°C 6%
2°C 5%
NEW
NEW
Apr 3, 2026
1°C or below
4%
2°C
5%
3°C
6%
4°C
8%
5°C
9%
6°C
10%
7°C
12%
8°C
10%
9°C
14%
10°C
13%
11°C or higher
83%
11°C or higher 83%
3°C 6%
10°C 6%
2°C 5%
NEW
NEW
Apr 3, 2026
1°C or below
$25 Объем
4%
2°C
$15 Объем
5%
3°C
$15 Объем
6%
4°C
$15 Объем
8%
5°C
$15 Объем
9%
6°C
$15 Объем
10%
7°C
$15 Объем
12%
8°C
$15 Объем
10%
9°C
$15 Объем
14%
10°C
$15 Объем
13%
11°C or higher
$119 Объем
83%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 3 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns an 82% implied probability to a high of 11°C or higher in Moscow on April 3, driven by recent Hydrometcenter of Russia forecasts indicating temperatures exceeding early April climatological averages of about 9°C by 7–8°C under a developing high-pressure ridge and southerly airflow. Late-March observations above 10°C signal a mild continental spring pattern persisting, with ECMWF and GFS ensembles clustering warmer outcomes despite spreads toward 6–10°C from potential jet stream variability or cloud cover. Lower probabilities for cooler readings (e.g., 15.5% at 10°C, 13.5% at 8–9°C) reflect acknowledged forecast uncertainty in volatile early spring conditions. Key updates from NOAA and Russian agencies every 12 hours, plus official Balchug station measurements, will sharpen resolution ahead of the date.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 3 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: Mar 29, 2026, 3:15 PM ET
Объем
$279Дата окончания
Apr 3, 2026Открытие рынка
Mar 29, 2026, 3:15 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 3 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns an 82% implied probability to a high of 11°C or higher in Moscow on April 3, driven by recent Hydrometcenter of Russia forecasts indicating temperatures exceeding early April climatological averages of about 9°C by 7–8°C under a developing high-pressure ridge and southerly airflow. Late-March observations above 10°C signal a mild continental spring pattern persisting, with ECMWF and GFS ensembles clustering warmer outcomes despite spreads toward 6–10°C from potential jet stream variability or cloud cover. Lower probabilities for cooler readings (e.g., 15.5% at 10°C, 13.5% at 8–9°C) reflect acknowledged forecast uncertainty in volatile early spring conditions. Key updates from NOAA and Russian agencies every 12 hours, plus official Balchug station measurements, will sharpen resolution ahead of the date.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 3 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Объем
$279Дата окончания
Apr 3, 2026Открытие рынка
Mar 29, 2026, 3:15 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns an 82% implied probability to a high of 11°C or higher in Moscow on April 3, driven by recent Hydrometcenter of Russia forecasts indicating temperatures exceeding early April climatological averages of about 9°C by 7–8°C under a developing high-pressure ridge and southerly airflow. Late-March observations above 10°C signal a mild continental spring pattern persisting, with ECMWF and GFS ensembles clustering warmer outcomes despite spreads toward 6–10°C from potential jet stream variability or cloud cover. Lower probabilities for cooler readings (e.g., 15.5% at 10°C, 13.5% at 8–9°C) reflect acknowledged forecast uncertainty in volatile early spring conditions. Key updates from NOAA and Russian agencies every 12 hours, plus official Balchug station measurements, will sharpen resolution ahead of the date.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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