Latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts project Moscow's highest temperature on April 1 spanning 8–17°C, with the control runs and cluster means clustering around 13–16°C, fueling trader consensus on those outcomes at 40–47% implied probabilities amid tight competition. This spread stems from uncertainty in shortwave trough evolution over western Russia, which could introduce cloud cover and northerly winds capping highs near 13°C, or allow persistent southerly advection—evident in late March's record-mild 16–17°C peaks under hazy high pressure—to push toward 15–16°C. Early April climatology averages 9°C, but 2026's anomalously warm spring trends support above-normal odds; daily model updates from NOAA and Russia's Hydrometeorological Center will sharpen resolution as the date nears.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоHighest temperature in Moscow on April 1?
Highest temperature in Moscow on April 1?
14°C 48%
9°C 43%
16°C 43%
13°C 42%
NEW
NEW
Apr 1, 2026
7°C or below
1%
8°C
42%
9°C
43%
10°C
39%
11°C
41%
12°C
42%
13°C
42%
14°C
48%
15°C
39%
16°C
43%
17°C or higher
29%
14°C 48%
9°C 43%
16°C 43%
13°C 42%
NEW
NEW
Apr 1, 2026
7°C or below
$279 Объем
1%
8°C
$5 Объем
42%
9°C
$5 Объем
43%
10°C
$5 Объем
39%
11°C
$5 Объем
41%
12°C
$5 Объем
42%
13°C
$5 Объем
42%
14°C
$9 Объем
48%
15°C
$5 Объем
39%
16°C
$5 Объем
43%
17°C or higher
$167 Объем
29%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 1 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts project Moscow's highest temperature on April 1 spanning 8–17°C, with the control runs and cluster means clustering around 13–16°C, fueling trader consensus on those outcomes at 40–47% implied probabilities amid tight competition. This spread stems from uncertainty in shortwave trough evolution over western Russia, which could introduce cloud cover and northerly winds capping highs near 13°C, or allow persistent southerly advection—evident in late March's record-mild 16–17°C peaks under hazy high pressure—to push toward 15–16°C. Early April climatology averages 9°C, but 2026's anomalously warm spring trends support above-normal odds; daily model updates from NOAA and Russia's Hydrometeorological Center will sharpen resolution as the date nears.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 1 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: Mar 29, 2026, 4:25 PM ET
Объем
$494Дата окончания
Apr 1, 2026Открытие рынка
Mar 29, 2026, 4:25 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 1 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts project Moscow's highest temperature on April 1 spanning 8–17°C, with the control runs and cluster means clustering around 13–16°C, fueling trader consensus on those outcomes at 40–47% implied probabilities amid tight competition. This spread stems from uncertainty in shortwave trough evolution over western Russia, which could introduce cloud cover and northerly winds capping highs near 13°C, or allow persistent southerly advection—evident in late March's record-mild 16–17°C peaks under hazy high pressure—to push toward 15–16°C. Early April climatology averages 9°C, but 2026's anomalously warm spring trends support above-normal odds; daily model updates from NOAA and Russia's Hydrometeorological Center will sharpen resolution as the date nears.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 1 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Объем
$494Дата окончания
Apr 1, 2026Открытие рынка
Mar 29, 2026, 4:25 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts project Moscow's highest temperature on April 1 spanning 8–17°C, with the control runs and cluster means clustering around 13–16°C, fueling trader consensus on those outcomes at 40–47% implied probabilities amid tight competition. This spread stems from uncertainty in shortwave trough evolution over western Russia, which could introduce cloud cover and northerly winds capping highs near 13°C, or allow persistent southerly advection—evident in late March's record-mild 16–17°C peaks under hazy high pressure—to push toward 15–16°C. Early April climatology averages 9°C, but 2026's anomalously warm spring trends support above-normal odds; daily model updates from NOAA and Russia's Hydrometeorological Center will sharpen resolution as the date nears.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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