Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty for Shenzhen's highest temperature on April 4, with implied probabilities tightly clustered at 25°C (26%), 26°C (23%), and nearby outcomes up to 29°C or higher (21%), mirroring the 24-28°C spread in global forecast models like GFS and ECMWF. This stems from anticipated humid subtropical conditions featuring variable cloud cover and showers—AccuWeather projects a 24°C high amid heavy rain—potentially capping peaks, while partial clearing, sea breezes, or urban heat island effects in the densely built city could push toward 28-29°C. Recent March warmth, with 27°C+ highs, and early April climatological averages near 26°C inform the positioning. Daily updates from China Meteorological Administration and model ensembles through April 3 will refine trajectories.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоHighest temperature in Shenzhen on April 4?
Highest temperature in Shenzhen on April 4?
25°C 26%
26°C 24%
27°C 22%
29°C or higher 22%
NEW
NEW
Apr 4, 2026
19°C or below
1%
20°C
3%
21°C
18%
22°C
9%
23°C
18%
24°C
19%
25°C
26%
26°C
24%
27°C
22%
28°C
19%
29°C or higher
22%
25°C 26%
26°C 24%
27°C 22%
29°C or higher 22%
NEW
NEW
Apr 4, 2026
19°C or below
$230 Объем
1%
20°C
$43 Объем
3%
21°C
$0 Объем
18%
22°C
$0 Объем
9%
23°C
$0 Объем
18%
24°C
$0 Объем
19%
25°C
$11 Объем
26%
26°C
$0 Объем
24%
27°C
$0 Объем
22%
28°C
$0 Объем
19%
29°C or higher
$0 Объем
22%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty for Shenzhen's highest temperature on April 4, with implied probabilities tightly clustered at 25°C (26%), 26°C (23%), and nearby outcomes up to 29°C or higher (21%), mirroring the 24-28°C spread in global forecast models like GFS and ECMWF. This stems from anticipated humid subtropical conditions featuring variable cloud cover and showers—AccuWeather projects a 24°C high amid heavy rain—potentially capping peaks, while partial clearing, sea breezes, or urban heat island effects in the densely built city could push toward 28-29°C. Recent March warmth, with 27°C+ highs, and early April climatological averages near 26°C inform the positioning. Daily updates from China Meteorological Administration and model ensembles through April 3 will refine trajectories.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: Mar 29, 2026, 3:17 PM ET
Объем
$284Дата окончания
Apr 4, 2026Открытие рынка
Mar 29, 2026, 3:17 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty for Shenzhen's highest temperature on April 4, with implied probabilities tightly clustered at 25°C (26%), 26°C (23%), and nearby outcomes up to 29°C or higher (21%), mirroring the 24-28°C spread in global forecast models like GFS and ECMWF. This stems from anticipated humid subtropical conditions featuring variable cloud cover and showers—AccuWeather projects a 24°C high amid heavy rain—potentially capping peaks, while partial clearing, sea breezes, or urban heat island effects in the densely built city could push toward 28-29°C. Recent March warmth, with 27°C+ highs, and early April climatological averages near 26°C inform the positioning. Daily updates from China Meteorological Administration and model ensembles through April 3 will refine trajectories.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Объем
$284Дата окончания
Apr 4, 2026Открытие рынка
Mar 29, 2026, 3:17 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty for Shenzhen's highest temperature on April 4, with implied probabilities tightly clustered at 25°C (26%), 26°C (23%), and nearby outcomes up to 29°C or higher (21%), mirroring the 24-28°C spread in global forecast models like GFS and ECMWF. This stems from anticipated humid subtropical conditions featuring variable cloud cover and showers—AccuWeather projects a 24°C high amid heavy rain—potentially capping peaks, while partial clearing, sea breezes, or urban heat island effects in the densely built city could push toward 28-29°C. Recent March warmth, with 27°C+ highs, and early April climatological averages near 26°C inform the positioning. Daily updates from China Meteorological Administration and model ensembles through April 3 will refine trajectories.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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