Trader consensus prices 17°C or higher at 41% implied probability for Istanbul's highest temperature on April 3, driven by ensemble spread in ECMWF and GFS models projecting daytime maxima of 12–18°C amid a low-pressure trough fostering cloud cover, showers, and cool northeasterly winds over the eastern Mediterranean. The Turkish State Meteorological Service's latest short-range forecast specifies a 14°C maximum with 74–93% humidity, aligning with recent March cool anomalies and suppressing intensities below early-April climatological norms of 15°C highs. Uncertainty persists due to potential clearing or model divergences; new runs from NOAA's GFS and ECMWF expected overnight could shift odds further as resolution nears.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоHighest temperature in Istanbul on April 3?
Highest temperature in Istanbul on April 3?
17°C or higher 38%
16°C 19%
15°C 19%
11°C 15%
NEW
NEW
Apr 3, 2026
7°C or below
1%
8°C
12%
9°C
13%
10°C
14%
11°C
15%
12°C
10%
13°C
11%
14°C
12%
15°C
19%
16°C
19%
17°C or higher
38%
17°C or higher 38%
16°C 19%
15°C 19%
11°C 15%
NEW
NEW
Apr 3, 2026
7°C or below
$210 Объем
1%
8°C
$0 Объем
12%
9°C
$0 Объем
13%
10°C
$0 Объем
14%
11°C
$0 Объем
15%
12°C
$0 Объем
10%
13°C
$0 Объем
11%
14°C
$9 Объем
12%
15°C
$0 Объем
19%
16°C
$0 Объем
19%
17°C or higher
$0 Объем
38%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 3 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus prices 17°C or higher at 41% implied probability for Istanbul's highest temperature on April 3, driven by ensemble spread in ECMWF and GFS models projecting daytime maxima of 12–18°C amid a low-pressure trough fostering cloud cover, showers, and cool northeasterly winds over the eastern Mediterranean. The Turkish State Meteorological Service's latest short-range forecast specifies a 14°C maximum with 74–93% humidity, aligning with recent March cool anomalies and suppressing intensities below early-April climatological norms of 15°C highs. Uncertainty persists due to potential clearing or model divergences; new runs from NOAA's GFS and ECMWF expected overnight could shift odds further as resolution nears.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 3 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: Mar 29, 2026, 2:36 PM ET
Объем
$219Дата окончания
Apr 3, 2026Открытие рынка
Mar 29, 2026, 2:36 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 3 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus prices 17°C or higher at 41% implied probability for Istanbul's highest temperature on April 3, driven by ensemble spread in ECMWF and GFS models projecting daytime maxima of 12–18°C amid a low-pressure trough fostering cloud cover, showers, and cool northeasterly winds over the eastern Mediterranean. The Turkish State Meteorological Service's latest short-range forecast specifies a 14°C maximum with 74–93% humidity, aligning with recent March cool anomalies and suppressing intensities below early-April climatological norms of 15°C highs. Uncertainty persists due to potential clearing or model divergences; new runs from NOAA's GFS and ECMWF expected overnight could shift odds further as resolution nears.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 3 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Объем
$219Дата окончания
Apr 3, 2026Открытие рынка
Mar 29, 2026, 2:36 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus prices 17°C or higher at 41% implied probability for Istanbul's highest temperature on April 3, driven by ensemble spread in ECMWF and GFS models projecting daytime maxima of 12–18°C amid a low-pressure trough fostering cloud cover, showers, and cool northeasterly winds over the eastern Mediterranean. The Turkish State Meteorological Service's latest short-range forecast specifies a 14°C maximum with 74–93% humidity, aligning with recent March cool anomalies and suppressing intensities below early-April climatological norms of 15°C highs. Uncertainty persists due to potential clearing or model divergences; new runs from NOAA's GFS and ECMWF expected overnight could shift odds further as resolution nears.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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