Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects substantial uncertainty in National Weather Service and ensemble model guidance for Chicago's highest temperature on April 3, with implied probabilities evenly spread across 39–55°F ranges due to divergent GFS and ECMWF projections at the 5-day horizon. Climatological normals at O'Hare International Airport stand at 54°F, but recent model runs show ensemble means near 51°F amid variable upper-air patterns, including potential northern stream troughs introducing cooler Canadian air masses versus ridging allowing southerly flow and partial sun. Key differentiators include front timing, cloud cover influencing insolation, and Lake Michigan's moderating breeze, which tempers extremes; colder outcomes like 39°F or below gain traction from outlier ensemble members signaling stalled lows, while 52–53°F leads on mean guidance. Updated NOAA model suites expected daily through resolution will likely refine odds.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоHighest temperature in Chicago on April 3?
Highest temperature in Chicago on April 3?
54-55°F 37%
58°F or higher 26%
52-53°F 21%
39°F or below 20%
NEW
NEW
Apr 3, 2026
39°F or below
20%
40-41°F
13%
42-43°F
16%
44-45°F
18%
46-47°F
18%
48-49°F
16%
50-51°F
19%
52-53°F
21%
54-55°F
19%
56-57°F
17%
58°F or higher
14%
54-55°F 37%
58°F or higher 26%
52-53°F 21%
39°F or below 20%
NEW
NEW
Apr 3, 2026
39°F or below
$0 Объем
20%
40-41°F
$0 Объем
13%
42-43°F
$1 Объем
16%
44-45°F
$0 Объем
18%
46-47°F
$0 Объем
18%
48-49°F
$0 Объем
16%
50-51°F
$0 Объем
19%
52-53°F
$0 Объем
21%
54-55°F
$31 Объем
19%
56-57°F
$5 Объем
17%
58°F or higher
$8 Объем
14%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 3 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects substantial uncertainty in National Weather Service and ensemble model guidance for Chicago's highest temperature on April 3, with implied probabilities evenly spread across 39–55°F ranges due to divergent GFS and ECMWF projections at the 5-day horizon. Climatological normals at O'Hare International Airport stand at 54°F, but recent model runs show ensemble means near 51°F amid variable upper-air patterns, including potential northern stream troughs introducing cooler Canadian air masses versus ridging allowing southerly flow and partial sun. Key differentiators include front timing, cloud cover influencing insolation, and Lake Michigan's moderating breeze, which tempers extremes; colder outcomes like 39°F or below gain traction from outlier ensemble members signaling stalled lows, while 52–53°F leads on mean guidance. Updated NOAA model suites expected daily through resolution will likely refine odds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 3 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: Mar 29, 2026, 3:03 PM ET
Объем
$40Дата окончания
Apr 3, 2026Открытие рынка
Mar 29, 2026, 3:03 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 3 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects substantial uncertainty in National Weather Service and ensemble model guidance for Chicago's highest temperature on April 3, with implied probabilities evenly spread across 39–55°F ranges due to divergent GFS and ECMWF projections at the 5-day horizon. Climatological normals at O'Hare International Airport stand at 54°F, but recent model runs show ensemble means near 51°F amid variable upper-air patterns, including potential northern stream troughs introducing cooler Canadian air masses versus ridging allowing southerly flow and partial sun. Key differentiators include front timing, cloud cover influencing insolation, and Lake Michigan's moderating breeze, which tempers extremes; colder outcomes like 39°F or below gain traction from outlier ensemble members signaling stalled lows, while 52–53°F leads on mean guidance. Updated NOAA model suites expected daily through resolution will likely refine odds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 3 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Объем
$40Дата окончания
Apr 3, 2026Открытие рынка
Mar 29, 2026, 3:03 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects substantial uncertainty in National Weather Service and ensemble model guidance for Chicago's highest temperature on April 3, with implied probabilities evenly spread across 39–55°F ranges due to divergent GFS and ECMWF projections at the 5-day horizon. Climatological normals at O'Hare International Airport stand at 54°F, but recent model runs show ensemble means near 51°F amid variable upper-air patterns, including potential northern stream troughs introducing cooler Canadian air masses versus ridging allowing southerly flow and partial sun. Key differentiators include front timing, cloud cover influencing insolation, and Lake Michigan's moderating breeze, which tempers extremes; colder outcomes like 39°F or below gain traction from outlier ensemble members signaling stalled lows, while 52–53°F leads on mean guidance. Updated NOAA model suites expected daily through resolution will likely refine odds.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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