Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in Shanghai's highest temperature on April 5, with 26% implied probabilities for both 18°C or below and 28°C or higher, driven by divergent short-range forecasts from GFS and ECMWF ensembles showing means near 22–23°C but spreads over 5°C due to variable spring frontal passages. Recent model runs, aligned with weather.com's 10-day outlook projecting 23–24°C under partly cloudy skies with low precipitation risk, favor mid-20s outcomes like 22–25°C, yet risks of northerly cold air advection or enhanced cloud cover from East Asian jet stream positioning could drop highs to the teens, matching climatological early April averages of 18°C. Daily China Meteorological Administration updates and new ensemble runs will clarify timing of potential weather systems ahead of resolution via official station data.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоHighest temperature in Shanghai on April 5?
Highest temperature in Shanghai on April 5?
21°C 27%
18°C or below 20.0%
22°C 20%
24°C 17%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
5 апр. 2026 г.
18°C or below
11%
19°C
12%
20°C
15%
21°C
27%
22°C
21%
23°C
24%
24°C
17%
25°C
12%
26°C
10%
27°C
11%
28°C or higher
5%
21°C 27%
18°C or below 20.0%
22°C 20%
24°C 17%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
5 апр. 2026 г.
18°C or below
$120 Объем
11%
19°C
$0 Объем
12%
20°C
$0 Объем
15%
21°C
$12 Объем
27%
22°C
$11 Объем
21%
23°C
$24 Объем
24%
24°C
$0 Объем
17%
25°C
$0 Объем
12%
26°C
$0 Объем
10%
27°C
$10 Объем
11%
28°C or higher
$96 Объем
5%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in Shanghai's highest temperature on April 5, with 26% implied probabilities for both 18°C or below and 28°C or higher, driven by divergent short-range forecasts from GFS and ECMWF ensembles showing means near 22–23°C but spreads over 5°C due to variable spring frontal passages. Recent model runs, aligned with weather.com's 10-day outlook projecting 23–24°C under partly cloudy skies with low precipitation risk, favor mid-20s outcomes like 22–25°C, yet risks of northerly cold air advection or enhanced cloud cover from East Asian jet stream positioning could drop highs to the teens, matching climatological early April averages of 18°C. Daily China Meteorological Administration updates and new ensemble runs will clarify timing of potential weather systems ahead of resolution via official station data.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: Apr 1, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Объем
$216Дата окончания
5 апр. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 1, 2026, 6:02 AM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in Shanghai's highest temperature on April 5, with 26% implied probabilities for both 18°C or below and 28°C or higher, driven by divergent short-range forecasts from GFS and ECMWF ensembles showing means near 22–23°C but spreads over 5°C due to variable spring frontal passages. Recent model runs, aligned with weather.com's 10-day outlook projecting 23–24°C under partly cloudy skies with low precipitation risk, favor mid-20s outcomes like 22–25°C, yet risks of northerly cold air advection or enhanced cloud cover from East Asian jet stream positioning could drop highs to the teens, matching climatological early April averages of 18°C. Daily China Meteorological Administration updates and new ensemble runs will clarify timing of potential weather systems ahead of resolution via official station data.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Объем
$216Дата окончания
5 апр. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 1, 2026, 6:02 AM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in Shanghai's highest temperature on April 5, with 26% implied probabilities for both 18°C or below and 28°C or higher, driven by divergent short-range forecasts from GFS and ECMWF ensembles showing means near 22–23°C but spreads over 5°C due to variable spring frontal passages. Recent model runs, aligned with weather.com's 10-day outlook projecting 23–24°C under partly cloudy skies with low precipitation risk, favor mid-20s outcomes like 22–25°C, yet risks of northerly cold air advection or enhanced cloud cover from East Asian jet stream positioning could drop highs to the teens, matching climatological early April averages of 18°C. Daily China Meteorological Administration updates and new ensemble runs will clarify timing of potential weather systems ahead of resolution via official station data.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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