Trader consensus favors a 17°C high in Beijing on April 1 at 35% implied probability, closely trailed by 18°C, driven by the latest China Meteorological Administration (CMA) guidance projecting exactly 17°C under partly cloudy skies and light southerly winds following late-March warming highs of 18–21°C. Global model ensembles from ECMWF and GFS show tight spreads around mid-teens Celsius, with differentiation arising from cloud cover variability—thicker overcast favoring 16°C outcomes, while stronger southerly advection and clearer conditions supporting 18–19°C. Early April climatology averages 16–18°C, reflecting typical spring frontal passages and jet stream positioning. New 12Z model runs from CMA and international centers, due within hours, will refine these probabilities amid inherent short-range forecast uncertainty.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоHighest temperature in Beijing on April 1?
Highest temperature in Beijing on April 1?
18°C 28%
17°C 28%
16°C 17%
19°C 13%
NEW
NEW
Apr 1, 2026
12°C or below
1%
13°C
1%
14°C
4%
15°C
10%
16°C
17%
17°C
35%
18°C
28%
19°C
13%
20°C
10%
21°C
6%
22°C or higher
5%
18°C 28%
17°C 28%
16°C 17%
19°C 13%
NEW
NEW
Apr 1, 2026
12°C or below
$602 Объем
1%
13°C
$177 Объем
1%
14°C
$534 Объем
4%
15°C
$55 Объем
10%
16°C
$113 Объем
17%
17°C
$205 Объем
35%
18°C
$21 Объем
28%
19°C
$307 Объем
13%
20°C
$26 Объем
10%
21°C
$16 Объем
6%
22°C or higher
$71 Объем
5%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus favors a 17°C high in Beijing on April 1 at 35% implied probability, closely trailed by 18°C, driven by the latest China Meteorological Administration (CMA) guidance projecting exactly 17°C under partly cloudy skies and light southerly winds following late-March warming highs of 18–21°C. Global model ensembles from ECMWF and GFS show tight spreads around mid-teens Celsius, with differentiation arising from cloud cover variability—thicker overcast favoring 16°C outcomes, while stronger southerly advection and clearer conditions supporting 18–19°C. Early April climatology averages 16–18°C, reflecting typical spring frontal passages and jet stream positioning. New 12Z model runs from CMA and international centers, due within hours, will refine these probabilities amid inherent short-range forecast uncertainty.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: Mar 29, 2026, 2:51 PM ET
Объем
$2,127Дата окончания
Apr 1, 2026Открытие рынка
Mar 29, 2026, 2:51 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus favors a 17°C high in Beijing on April 1 at 35% implied probability, closely trailed by 18°C, driven by the latest China Meteorological Administration (CMA) guidance projecting exactly 17°C under partly cloudy skies and light southerly winds following late-March warming highs of 18–21°C. Global model ensembles from ECMWF and GFS show tight spreads around mid-teens Celsius, with differentiation arising from cloud cover variability—thicker overcast favoring 16°C outcomes, while stronger southerly advection and clearer conditions supporting 18–19°C. Early April climatology averages 16–18°C, reflecting typical spring frontal passages and jet stream positioning. New 12Z model runs from CMA and international centers, due within hours, will refine these probabilities amid inherent short-range forecast uncertainty.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Объем
$2,127Дата окончания
Apr 1, 2026Открытие рынка
Mar 29, 2026, 2:51 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus favors a 17°C high in Beijing on April 1 at 35% implied probability, closely trailed by 18°C, driven by the latest China Meteorological Administration (CMA) guidance projecting exactly 17°C under partly cloudy skies and light southerly winds following late-March warming highs of 18–21°C. Global model ensembles from ECMWF and GFS show tight spreads around mid-teens Celsius, with differentiation arising from cloud cover variability—thicker overcast favoring 16°C outcomes, while stronger southerly advection and clearer conditions supporting 18–19°C. Early April climatology averages 16–18°C, reflecting typical spring frontal passages and jet stream positioning. New 12Z model runs from CMA and international centers, due within hours, will refine these probabilities amid inherent short-range forecast uncertainty.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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