Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight clustering around 19–20°C as the highest temperature in Shanghai on April 4, driven by ECMWF and GFS ensemble means of 18–19°C amid spreads exceeding 5°C, per recent model runs as of March 30. This uncertainty stems from divergent forecasts on cloud cover and recovery after heavy rain projected for April 3, with some members showing rapid clearing and southerly flow boosting highs to 24°C or more under the subtropical ridge influence, while others predict lingering overcast skies and cooler northerly winds capping at 17–18°C. Timeanddate.com extended forecasts align at 22°C with low precip odds, but early April climatology averages 18°C highs, underscoring variability from frontal passages and urban heat effects. Watch overnight GFS/ECMWF updates and China Meteorological Administration bulletins for shifts ahead of resolution via official station data.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоHighest temperature in Shanghai on April 4?
Highest temperature in Shanghai on April 4?
19°C 26%
20°C 23%
22°C 21%
24°C or higher 21%
NEW
NEW
Apr 4, 2026
14°C or below
3%
15°C
5%
16°C
18%
17°C
19%
18°C
20%
19°C
26%
20°C
23%
21°C
17%
22°C
16%
23°C
13%
24°C or higher
21%
19°C 26%
20°C 23%
22°C 21%
24°C or higher 21%
NEW
NEW
Apr 4, 2026
14°C or below
$0 Объем
3%
15°C
$65 Объем
5%
16°C
$101 Объем
18%
17°C
$5 Объем
19%
18°C
$0 Объем
20%
19°C
$0 Объем
26%
20°C
$0 Объем
23%
21°C
$0 Объем
17%
22°C
$11 Объем
16%
23°C
$0 Объем
13%
24°C or higher
$5 Объем
21%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight clustering around 19–20°C as the highest temperature in Shanghai on April 4, driven by ECMWF and GFS ensemble means of 18–19°C amid spreads exceeding 5°C, per recent model runs as of March 30. This uncertainty stems from divergent forecasts on cloud cover and recovery after heavy rain projected for April 3, with some members showing rapid clearing and southerly flow boosting highs to 24°C or more under the subtropical ridge influence, while others predict lingering overcast skies and cooler northerly winds capping at 17–18°C. Timeanddate.com extended forecasts align at 22°C with low precip odds, but early April climatology averages 18°C highs, underscoring variability from frontal passages and urban heat effects. Watch overnight GFS/ECMWF updates and China Meteorological Administration bulletins for shifts ahead of resolution via official station data.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: Mar 29, 2026, 4:04 PM ET
Объем
$186Дата окончания
Apr 4, 2026Открытие рынка
Mar 29, 2026, 4:04 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight clustering around 19–20°C as the highest temperature in Shanghai on April 4, driven by ECMWF and GFS ensemble means of 18–19°C amid spreads exceeding 5°C, per recent model runs as of March 30. This uncertainty stems from divergent forecasts on cloud cover and recovery after heavy rain projected for April 3, with some members showing rapid clearing and southerly flow boosting highs to 24°C or more under the subtropical ridge influence, while others predict lingering overcast skies and cooler northerly winds capping at 17–18°C. Timeanddate.com extended forecasts align at 22°C with low precip odds, but early April climatology averages 18°C highs, underscoring variability from frontal passages and urban heat effects. Watch overnight GFS/ECMWF updates and China Meteorological Administration bulletins for shifts ahead of resolution via official station data.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Объем
$186Дата окончания
Apr 4, 2026Открытие рынка
Mar 29, 2026, 4:04 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight clustering around 19–20°C as the highest temperature in Shanghai on April 4, driven by ECMWF and GFS ensemble means of 18–19°C amid spreads exceeding 5°C, per recent model runs as of March 30. This uncertainty stems from divergent forecasts on cloud cover and recovery after heavy rain projected for April 3, with some members showing rapid clearing and southerly flow boosting highs to 24°C or more under the subtropical ridge influence, while others predict lingering overcast skies and cooler northerly winds capping at 17–18°C. Timeanddate.com extended forecasts align at 22°C with low precip odds, but early April climatology averages 18°C highs, underscoring variability from frontal passages and urban heat effects. Watch overnight GFS/ECMWF updates and China Meteorological Administration bulletins for shifts ahead of resolution via official station data.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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