Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 99.7% implied probability to a 24°C high temperature at Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport on April 1, driven by real-time observational data from the China Meteorological Administration showing peak readings of 24°C during midday hours under persistent overcast skies and light winds. These conditions have suppressed solar heating and convective warming, aligning with short-range forecast models like those from CMA indicating highs of 23–24°C amid a mild southerly flow and typical early-spring frontal passage. Historical April averages hover around 22°C, with today's slight warm anomaly fitting climatological norms. Realistic challenges include brief late-afternoon clearing boosting temperatures to 25°C, though diminishing daylight and stable cloud deck make this unlikely; final official station data expected post-midnight will resolve the market.