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Politics·Trump

Who will Trump pardon before 2027?

Market icon
Politics·Trump

Who will Trump pardon before 2027?

$202,532 Vol.

Dec 31, 2026
Polymarket

$202,532 Vol.

Polymarket

Stefan Brodie

$0 Vol.

64%

Donald Brodie

$0 Vol.

54%

Matt Gaetz

$0 Vol.

50%

Daniel Penny

$11 Vol.

37%

Ryan Salame

$15,172 Vol.

27%

Young Thug

$4,105 Vol.

17%

Roger Ver

$0 Vol.

19%

Steve Bannon

$6,153 Vol.

27%

Keonne Rodriguez

$9,207 Vol.

23%

Julian Assange

$1,506 Vol.

10%

Joe Exotic

$330 Vol.

14%

Himself

$2,458 Vol.

10%

Edward Snowden

$1,755 Vol.

13%

Elizabeth Holmes

$1,001 Vol.

12%

Martin Shkreli

$18,454 Vol.

10%

Nicolas Maduro

$6,023 Vol.

10%

Eric Adams

$81 Vol.

15%

Derek Chauvin

$17,928 Vol.

8%

Ghislaine Maxwell

$9,661 Vol.

7%

Sam Bankman-Fried

$35,094 Vol.

7%

Do Kwon

$15,890 Vol.

6%

Diddy

$6,554 Vol.

6%

Hunter Biden

$2,046 Vol.

6%

Antoine Massey

$0 Vol.

5%

Elon Musk

$49,102 Vol.

5%

Roger Stone

$0 Vol.

34%

Bob Menendez

$0 Vol.

34%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between November 17, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between December 4, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between December 16, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between January 2, 2026 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.President Trump's second term has featured aggressive use of the pardon power, granting over 1,600 pardons and commutations since January 2025—primarily a blanket clemency for roughly 1,500 January 6 Capitol riot defendants, crypto figures like Changpeng Zhao and BitMEX founders, financial fraudsters, political allies including fake electors, and recent NFL players in February 2026. Early April 2026 reports, including Wall Street Journal accounts of Trump pledging pardons for those near the Oval Office and promises to top officials, signal potential mass end-of-term grants amid lame-duck pressures. Traders weigh this supporter-favoring pattern against uncertainty in White House announcements before the December 31, 2026, cutoff, with DOJ lists as primary resolution sources.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between November 17, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$202,532
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Nov 18, 2025, 10:46 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between November 17, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between November 17, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between December 4, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between December 16, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between January 2, 2026 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.President Trump's second term has featured aggressive use of the pardon power, granting over 1,600 pardons and commutations since January 2025—primarily a blanket clemency for roughly 1,500 January 6 Capitol riot defendants, crypto figures like Changpeng Zhao and BitMEX founders, financial fraudsters, political allies including fake electors, and recent NFL players in February 2026. Early April 2026 reports, including Wall Street Journal accounts of Trump pledging pardons for those near the Oval Office and promises to top officials, signal potential mass end-of-term grants amid lame-duck pressures. Traders weigh this supporter-favoring pattern against uncertainty in White House announcements before the December 31, 2026, cutoff, with DOJ lists as primary resolution sources.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between November 17, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$202,532
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Nov 18, 2025, 10:46 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between November 17, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Who will Trump pardon before 2027?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 27 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Stefan Brodie" at 64%, followed by "Donald Brodie" at 55%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 64¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 64% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Who will Trump pardon before 2027?" has generated $202.5K in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 18, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Who will Trump pardon before 2027?," browse the 27 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Who will Trump pardon before 2027?" is "Stefan Brodie" at 64%, meaning the market assigns a 64% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Donald Brodie" at 55%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Who will Trump pardon before 2027?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.