Russian forces of the 5th Combined Arms Army continue grinding assaults toward Verkhnia Tersa in Zaporizhzhia Oblast's Huliaipole sector, aiming to breach Ukrainian fortifications en route to Orikhiv, but OSINT maps as of late March confirm no verified entry into the village despite infiltration attempts from three axes near Tsvitkove, Huliaipilske, and Myrne. The settlement endured 40 strikes on March 2—the front's highest—amid Russian troop shifts from Kherson and Crimea, while Ukrainian defenses hold tactical heights bolstered since 2022, supported by counteroffensives recapturing nearby Verbove and Ternuvate. Recent airstrikes hit Verkhnia Tersa on March 29, sustaining pressure; traders track daily clashes, potential reinforcements, and flanking risks through potential deadlines like March 31 for frontline shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated$103,369 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
March 31
4%
April 30
41%
$103,369 Vol.
March 31
$42,280 Vol.
4%
April 30
$786 Vol.
41%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of Verkhnia Tersa, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, (47.695737° N, 36.084864° E) between market creation and the specified date 2026 (ET).
Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine", “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify.
Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.Russian forces of the 5th Combined Arms Army continue grinding assaults toward Verkhnia Tersa in Zaporizhzhia Oblast's Huliaipole sector, aiming to breach Ukrainian fortifications en route to Orikhiv, but OSINT maps as of late March confirm no verified entry into the village despite infiltration attempts from three axes near Tsvitkove, Huliaipilske, and Myrne. The settlement endured 40 strikes on March 2—the front's highest—amid Russian troop shifts from Kherson and Crimea, while Ukrainian defenses hold tactical heights bolstered since 2022, supported by counteroffensives recapturing nearby Verbove and Ternuvate. Recent airstrikes hit Verkhnia Tersa on March 29, sustaining pressure; traders track daily clashes, potential reinforcements, and flanking risks through potential deadlines like March 31 for frontline shifts.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of Verkhnia Tersa, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, (47.695737° N, 36.084864° E) between market creation and the specified date 2026 (ET).
Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine", “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify.
Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine", “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify.
Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Market Opened: Mar 26, 2026, 9:08 AM ET
Volume
$103,369End Date
Mar 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 26, 2026, 9:08 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of Verkhnia Tersa, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, (47.695737° N, 36.084864° E) between market creation and the specified date 2026 (ET).
Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine", “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify.
Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.Russian forces of the 5th Combined Arms Army continue grinding assaults toward Verkhnia Tersa in Zaporizhzhia Oblast's Huliaipole sector, aiming to breach Ukrainian fortifications en route to Orikhiv, but OSINT maps as of late March confirm no verified entry into the village despite infiltration attempts from three axes near Tsvitkove, Huliaipilske, and Myrne. The settlement endured 40 strikes on March 2—the front's highest—amid Russian troop shifts from Kherson and Crimea, while Ukrainian defenses hold tactical heights bolstered since 2022, supported by counteroffensives recapturing nearby Verbove and Ternuvate. Recent airstrikes hit Verkhnia Tersa on March 29, sustaining pressure; traders track daily clashes, potential reinforcements, and flanking risks through potential deadlines like March 31 for frontline shifts.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of Verkhnia Tersa, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, (47.695737° N, 36.084864° E) between market creation and the specified date 2026 (ET).
Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine", “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify.
Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine", “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify.
Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Volume
$103,369End Date
Mar 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 26, 2026, 9:08 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Russian forces of the 5th Combined Arms Army continue grinding assaults toward Verkhnia Tersa in Zaporizhzhia Oblast's Huliaipole sector, aiming to breach Ukrainian fortifications en route to Orikhiv, but OSINT maps as of late March confirm no verified entry into the village despite infiltration attempts from three axes near Tsvitkove, Huliaipilske, and Myrne. The settlement endured 40 strikes on March 2—the front's highest—amid Russian troop shifts from Kherson and Crimea, while Ukrainian defenses hold tactical heights bolstered since 2022, supported by counteroffensives recapturing nearby Verbove and Ternuvate. Recent airstrikes hit Verkhnia Tersa on March 29, sustaining pressure; traders track daily clashes, potential reinforcements, and flanking risks through potential deadlines like March 31 for frontline shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions