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This market will resolve to "Yes" if Vladimir Putin meets with Volodymyr Zelenskyy between May 19 ET, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An exchange of words, handshake, direct conversation, or other clear personal interaction between the named individuals will qualify as a meeting. Merely standing in proximity, making eye contact, or being present in the same room or event without direct interaction will not qualify.

A meeting is defined as any encounter where both Zelenskyy and Putin are present and interact with each other in person.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.


Putin meet Zelenskyy

Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy in 2025?

There are no tweets provided for analysis at this time. Without data, no summary or context regarding market price movement can be generated.

No Tweets Available

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Market News Update

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No significant events or updates were reported in the analyzed content. The lack of specific information suggests a period of relative calm or unchanged conditions in the market.

There are no tweets or social media activity provided for analysis at this time. Without data, no specific events or sentiments can be summarized or linked to market movements.

No Activity Reported

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There are no tweets provided for analysis at this time. Without specific content to summarize, no key events or sentiments can be reported.

No significant events or updates are available at this time due to the absence of relevant social media content. Further monitoring is required to identify any emerging news or developments.

There are no tweets provided for analysis at this time. Please provide relevant social media content to generate a summary and title related to the market price movement.

No significant events or updates were reported in the recent social media activity. The lack of specific information suggests a period of stability or minimal impactful developments in the market context.

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and President Trump express optimism about nearing a peace deal to end the conflict between Ukraine and Russia, though territorial issues, particularly Donbas, remain a significant hurdle. Despite progress in negotiations, tensions rise as Russia claims Ukraine attacked Putin's residence, a charge Zelenskyy denies as an attempt to derail talks.

Ukraine Peace Talks Advance

President Volodymyr Zelensky said Ukraine can’t withdraw from its territories as part of any peace deal with Russia, emphasizing that the issue goes beyond legal constraints and affects people’s lives. 

https://t.co/6H1p5OvROb

After the latest rounds of negotiations with Putin, Trump has indeed shown open support for putting pressure on Zelenskyy – sources from Russian media.

The alleged Ukrainian drone attack on Putin's residence was a convenient political trigger for Trump.

Putin has sent a clear https://t.co/z0Ra74XTWC

‼️"Another lie from the Russian Federation,"- Zelenskyy said, dismissing Russian claims that Ukrainians supposedly attacked Putin’s residence. He added that this is an attempt to undermine the successful negotiations in Mar-a-Lago and to justify future brutal attacks on Kyiv, https://t.co/duMHq9MTJa

🚨🇺🇸🇺🇦 ZELENSKY: “PEACE DEAL IS CLOSE” AFTER TRUMP MEETING, BUT DONBAS IS A RED LINE

After meeting with Trump, Zelensky now says a peace deal with Russia may finally be within reach, but warns there's one non-negotiable: Ukraine won’t give up its territory.

Specifically, Donbas https://t.co/ohfYRzfkKk https://t.co/nR2zK1HGke

CNN's @ScottJenningsKY on Trump's latest negotiations with Zelenskyy and Putin to end Russia's war in Ukraine....

"I think the President is constantly talking to both of these guys and trying to find a way to get them to both get into a place where they don't have to go back https://t.co/eaqXGwG8QM

When asked Sunday what continues to be the thorniest issue in attempting to reach a peace settlement between Ukraine and Russia, President Trump said that it is territory. https://t.co/xLZnYTlujs

"I really believe we're probably, Mr. President, closer than — by far — closer than ever before with both parties."

@POTUS Trump tells reporters after his meeting with Zelensky at Mar A Lago that the peace talks between Russia and Ukraine are proceeding well. https://t.co/xIJMezuHxt

Russia’s groundless claims of a Ukrainian attack on Putin’s residence come just a day after Trump and Zelenskyy both hailed progress in peace talks. The Kremlin is obviously trying to derail negotiations. This is yet more proof that Putin does not want peace and cannot be trusted https://t.co/oMBHM9EOb4

Today's cover: President Trump suggested he would be willing to go to Ukraine to convince its parliament to concede land to Russia in a bid to end the war after meeting with Volodymyr Zelensky —while declaring peace is “closer than ever before.” https://t.co/LUhgekcd9r https://t.co/PgO80RU5WE

Retired US Army colonel Joe Buccino: Seeing senior Trump officials at the negotiations table signals a serious push.

Witkoff and Kushner have shaped the 20-point plan Zelenskyy now brings forward, moving Ukraine closer to terms Trump believes he can broker with Putin.

1/ https://t.co/0TWOgwDlOT

Ukraine is coordinating a "coalition of the resolute" meeting in Paris for early January while simultaneously preparing for talks with Trump and European leaders—all before any potential dialogue with Russia, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said
https://t.co/8WrZDXlWO4 https://t.co/JKIue7hIGs

The path to peace in Ukraine is still tangled by the "thorny issues" that President Trump say remained, despite the optimism of his summit with Ukrainian President Zelenskyy. https://t.co/VGYFtKsCBS

The path to peace in Ukraine is still tangled by the "thorny issues" that President Trump say remained, despite the optimism of his summit with Ukrainian President Zelenskyy. https://t.co/wssWn2e2vU

Russian FM Sergei Lavrov claims that Ukraine attempted to strike President Putin’s state residence with 91 long-range drones, all of which were destroyed by Russian air defenses.

He calls it “state terrorism” and warns it may affect negotiations. Zelenskyy denies, calling it https://t.co/rySa1CrLtZ

No significant events or updates were reported in the provided data. The absence of information suggests a period of stability or lack of notable activity influencing the market.

There are no tweets or social media activity to summarize at this time. Please provide relevant data for analysis when available.

There are no tweets provided for analysis at this time. Please provide relevant social media content to summarize key events or sentiments.

No significant events or updates have been reported in the provided data. The absence of specific information limits the ability to assess current influences on market dynamics.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Vladimir Putin meets with Volodymyr Zelenskyy between July 30 and August 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A meeting is defined as any encounter where both Zelenskyy and Putin are present and interact with each other in person.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by August 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Vladimir Putin meets with Volodymyr Zelenskyy between August 18 and August 22, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A meeting is defined as any encounter where both Zelenskyy and Putin are present and interact with each other in person.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by August 22?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Vladimir Putin meets with Volodymyr Zelenskyy between April 18 ET, and June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A meeting is defined as any encounter where both Zelenskyy and Putin are present and interact with each other in person.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy before July?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Vladimir Putin meets with Volodymyr Zelenskyy between May 12 ET, and May 16, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An exchange of words, handshake, direct conversation, or other clear personal interaction between the named individuals will qualify as a meeting. Merely standing in proximity, making eye contact, or being present in the same room or event without direct interaction will not qualify.

A meeting is defined as any encounter where both Zelenskyy and Putin are present and interact with each other in person.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by Friday?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Vladimir Putin meets with Volodymyr Zelenskyy between June 19 ET, and July 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A meeting is defined as any encounter where both Zelenskyy and Putin are present and interact with each other in person.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy before August?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Vladimir Putin meets with Volodymyr Zelenskyy between September 23 ET, and June 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An exchange of words, handshake, direct conversation, or other clear personal interaction between the named individuals will qualify as a meeting. Merely standing in proximity, making eye contact, or being present in the same room or event without direct interaction will not qualify.

A meeting is defined as any encounter where both Zelenskyy and Putin are present and interact with each other in person.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by June 30, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Vladimir Putin meets with Volodymyr Zelenskyy between August 18, and September 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A meeting is defined as any encounter where both Zelenskyy and Putin are present and interact with each other in person.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by September 30?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Vladimir Putin meets with Volodymyr Zelenskyy between this market's creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An exchange of words, handshake, direct conversation, or other clear personal interaction between the named individuals will qualify as a meeting. Merely standing in proximity, making eye contact, or being present in the same room or event without direct interaction will not qualify.

A meeting is defined as any encounter where both Zelenskyy and Putin are present and interact with each other in person.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by March 31, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Vladimir Putin talk by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".

A talk is defined as any interaction between Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Vladimir Putin, occurring either in person or through verbal communication by phone or video call.

Events that occurred prior to the start of this market will not qualify toward its resolution.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by March 31?

On August 15, 2025, U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin met in person at Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson near Anchorage, Alaska, for a summit focused on potential peace terms in Ukraine. 

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Vladimir Putin meets with Donald Trump on a separate occasion from the August 15, 2025 meeting by the listed date (ET).  Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Encounters that are part of, or a continuation of, the August 15 meeting will not qualify, even if they occur on a different day (e.g. August 16).

A meeting is defined as any encounter where both Putin and Trump are present and interact with each other in person.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Will Trump meet with Putin by March 31, 2026?

This market will resolve according to the location of the next meeting between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin between September 30 and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

This market will resolve to "No meeting by June 30" if no qualifying meeting occurs during this market's timeframe.

A meeting is defined as any encounter where Putin and Trump are all present and interact with each other in person.

An exchange of words, handshake, direct conversation, or other clear personal interaction between the named individuals will qualify as a meeting. Merely standing in proximity, making eye contact, or being present in the same room or event without direct interaction will not qualify.

For this market, Gulf states are defined as the six members of the Gulf Cooperation Council (Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates).

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Will Trump and Putin not meet?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Ukrainian presidential election is scheduled by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market is about whether a date for the next Ukrainian election is announced between February 14, 2025, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Whether the election is supposed to take place during this timeframe or later will have no effect on the resolution of this market.

The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the Government of Ukraine; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.


Ukraine election called by June 30, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if national elections for the parliament and/or presidency of Ukraine are held between February 12, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market is based on whether national elections are actually held in Ukraine within the specified dates. Merely scheduling an election will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes".

If elections are officially scheduled for a date outside this market's timeframe, this market will immediately resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Ukraine, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Ukraine election held by December 31, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump meets with Delcy Rodríguez by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An exchange of words, handshake, direct conversation, or other clear personal interaction between the named individuals will qualify as a meeting. Merely standing in proximity, making eye contact, or being present in the same room or event without direct interaction will not qualify.

A meeting is defined as any encounter where both listed individual and Trump are present and interact with each other in person.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.


Will Trump meet with Delcy Rodríguez by March 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of the United States and Russia between January 6 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between U.S. and Russian military forces. Non-violent actions, such as airspace violations, firing of warning shots (such as the June, 2021 Black Sea Confrontations between Russian forces and HMS Defender), or cyberattacks will not qualify. 

Intentional physical collisions, including aerial interceptions and naval ramming without the direct use of weaponry, such as the 2023 Black Sea incident—where a Russian Su-27 damaged a U.S. MQ-9 Reaper drone's propeller, leading to its crash— will not qualify regardless of damage. 

Military contractors will qualify only if confirmed to be operating under the direct command or coordination of the respective state’s armed forces (e.g. the Battle of Khasham would not qualify).

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Xi Jinping meets with Cheng Li-wun by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A meeting is defined as any encounter where both Xi Jinping and Cheng Li-wun are present and interact with each other in person.

An exchange of words, handshake, direct conversation, or other clear personal interaction between the named individuals will qualify as a meeting. Merely standing in proximity, making eye contact, or being present in the same room or event without direct interaction will not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Will Xi Jinping meet with Cheng Li-wun by June 30?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump meets with Reza Pahlavi by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A meeting is defined as any encounter where both the listed individual and Trump are present and interact with each other in person.

An exchange of words, handshake, direct conversation, or other clear personal interaction between the named individuals will qualify as a meeting. Merely standing in proximity, making eye contact, or being present in the same room or event without direct interaction will not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Will Trump meet with Reza Pahlavi by January 31?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if all of the following conditions are met by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET:

- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire
- Ukraine agrees not to join NATO
- Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met within the specified timeframe.

The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Russia+x+Ukraine+2026+Peace+Parlay.pdf

Russia x Ukraine Peace Parlay

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of a NATO country and Russia between January 2, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between NATO and Russian military forces. Non-violent actions, such as airspace violations, firing of warning shots (such as the June, 2021 Black Sea Confrontations between Russian forces and HMS Defender), or cyberattacks will not qualify.

Interception of missiles or other one-way attack or loitering munitions (e.g. Shahed drones) which are targeting a 3rd party other than the listed countries or their respective forces will not alone qualify. Shooting down UAVs which are not munitions (e.g. MQ-9, Orlan 10, Orion, Bayraktar TB2, etc.) will qualify.

Intentional physical collisions, including aerial interceptions and naval ramming without the direct use of weaponry, such as the 2023 Black Sea incident—where a Russian Su-27 damaged a U.S. MQ-9 Reaper drone's propeller, leading to its crash— will not qualify regardless of damage.

Military contractors will qualify only if confirmed to be operating under the direct command or coordination of the respective state’s armed forces (e.g. the Battle of Khasham would not qualify).

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a deal in which Ukraine agrees to formally recognize Russian sovereignty over any UN-recognized Ukrainian territory is reached between the Russian Federation and Ukraine by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The deal must be a publicly announced mutual agreement. 

If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.

An agreement by Ukraine formally recognizing Russian sovereignty over any UN-recognized Ukrainian territory for any amount of time will count.

An agreement by Ukraine formally recognizing Russian sovereignty over any UN-recognized Ukrainian territory as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995, “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia, which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement, is an example of a qualifying agreement.

An official unilateral pledge by Ukraine formally recognizing Russian sovereignty over any UN-recognized Ukrainian territory will qualify for a “Yes” resolution even if not part of an agreement with Russia.

The April 19, 2013, Brussels Agreement between Serbia and Kosovo, in which Serbia recognized Kosovo’s de facto administration but did not formally grant de jure recognition, would not be considered a qualifying agreement under this market, as this market requires formal recognition of sovereignty rather than acknowledgment of administrative control.

The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by Ukraine and/or the Russian Federation, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.


Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by June 30, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump meets with Jerome Powell by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A meeting is defined as any encounter where both the listed individual and Trump are present and interact with each other in person.

An exchange of words, handshake, direct conversation, or other clear personal interaction between the named individuals will qualify as a meeting. Merely standing in proximity, making eye contact, or being present in the same room or event without direct interaction will not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Will Trump meet with Jerome Powell by January 31, 2026?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Ukraine officially agrees to a peace framework to end the Russo–Ukrainian war that the United States has formally endorsed by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

A qualifying peace framework is any publicly announced plan, roadmap, or framework intended as the basis for ending the war, provided that the United States formally endorses it and Ukraine officially agrees to it through one of the following:

1. A written or signed framework-related instrument issued or signed by Ukraine that affirms agreement with the U.S.-endorsed framework.

2. An official U.S.–Ukraine announcement — defined as an official government-issued declaration, such as a joint statement, communiqué, or coordinated official releases, explicitly stating that Ukraine has agreed to a U.S.-endorsed peace framework. The announcement must be issued through authorized government channels, including official written releases or formally published transcripts by the White House, State Department, Office of the President of Ukraine, Cabinet of Ministers, or Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Verbal (including interviews or remarks during bilateral meetings) and social-media claims by either leader will not qualify unless later issued in an official written or published form by the respective government. The U.S. President or any US government official publicly stating that “an agreement has been reached,” without a corresponding formal release or communiqué, will not qualify; the same applies to statements by the Ukrainian President or Ukrainian officials.

3. A formally issued Ukrainian governmental action — including a presidential decree, Cabinet resolution, or National Security and Defense Council decision — explicitly stating that Ukraine agrees to the U.S.-endorsed framework. 

The primary resolution source will be official government documents, statements, decrees, and credible reporting confirming that Ukraine officially agreed to a U.S.-endorsed peace framework under the standards above.


Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by March 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement on nuclear arms control or strategic nuclear weapons limitation is reached between the United States and the Russian Federation between December 9, 2025 and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Only agreements that are publicly announced and acknowledged by both the U.S. and Russia will qualify. The agreement must pertain to nuclear arms control or limitation—such as a treaty, framework, or memorandum—addressing matters including (but not limited to) nuclear warheads, delivery systems, verification mechanisms, or strategic stability.

An extension, amendment, or replacement of the New START treaty will qualify, provided it is publicly announced as a concluded agreement by both parties within the time frame. Exploratory discussions or stated intent to extend without a finalized agreement will not qualify.

Agreements that include both the United States and Russia as named parties—whether bilateral or as part of a broader multilateral framework—will qualify, provided the agreement directly addresses nuclear arms control.

The agreement does not need to be ratified or implemented for this market to resolve "Yes"; a formal announcement of a concluded agreement is sufficient.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the U.S. government (e.g., the White House, State Department) and/or the Russian Federation (e.g., the Kremlin, Ministry of Foreign Affairs). However, a clear and overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such an agreement has been reached will also qualify.

U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by June 30?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if a peace referendum on the Russo-Ukrainian war is officially scheduled in Ukraine by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. 

A peace referendum for the Russo-Ukrainian war refers to any nationwide vote relating to peace in the Russo-Ukrainian war or over a peace deal to end the war.

A qualifying referendum will be considered to be scheduled once a date for the referendum to take place has been officially scheduled and publicly announced by a relevant Ukrainian government authority with the legal jurisdiction to do so. 

Once a qualifying referendum has been scheduled, this market will resolve to “Yes.” Subsequent legal challenges or other challenges to the legitimacy of the referendum will not affect resolution of this market.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Ukraine; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by June 30?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if active military personnel officially affiliated with any NATO or EU country enter Ukraine for combat-related military purposes directly pertaining to the ongoing conflict with Russia by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For military personnel to qualify toward a "Yes" resolution, they must be 1) officially acknowledged as active military by the NATO or EU entity or member state they are affiliated with; 2) be publicly acknowledged by NATO or an EU-affiliated entity to have entered Ukraine for a combat-related military purpose directly pertaining to the ongoing conflict with Russia.

For military personnel to qualify toward a "Yes" resolution they need be active duty and acknowledged as described above. Participation in a combat role is necessary for this market to resolve to "Yes" (e.g. military personnel providing training or intelligence support would not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution, however drone pilots or infantry directly attacking Russian troops, or soldiers targeting and downing missiles from Ukrainian soil would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution).

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO, the EU, or member states of either entity, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

NATO/EU troops fighting in Ukraine in June 30, 2026?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if a peace referendum on the Russo-Ukrainian war is officially passed in Ukraine by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. 

A peace referendum for the Russo-Ukrainian war refers to any nationwide vote relating to peace in the Russo-Ukrainian war or over a peace deal to end the war.

A qualifying referendum will be considered to be passed if a majority of valid votes cast nationwide support the proposal. Subsequent legal challenges or other challenges to the legitimacy of the referendum will not affect the resolution of this market.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Ukraine; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Ukraine peace referendum passed before 2027?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Trump administration or the U.S. government announces that it is sending, has sent, or will send Tomahawk cruise missiles to Ukraine by March 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

A qualifying statement within the specified timeframe will suffice regardless of when the missiles are sent.

For the purposes of this market, official policy announcements from the Trump administration or the U.S. government will qualify. Informal statements, leaks, or speculative remarks will not be sufficient.

The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the Trump administration, the U.S. government, or the government of Ukraine. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used if no direct official statement is available.

Will Trump send Tomahawk to Ukraine by March 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any NATO country by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by NATO member states or Russia as of May 28, 2025, will be considered the sovereign territory of those countries.

Hybrid or “grey zone” operations conducted by unmarked personnel will qualify if they are confirmed to be Russian operatives and are intended to establish de facto control over territory, as occurred in Crimea (2014) or Donbas (2014–2022).

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.

Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of Zaliznychne, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, by January 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.

Territory will be considered captured if any part of Zaliznychne is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.

For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine", “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. 

Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.

If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.

Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.

Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy in 2025?

Market Context

Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy in 2025?

Rules

Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy in 2025?

Market Context

Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy in 2025?

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