Trader consensus reflects near-certainty at 97.5% that President-elect Trump's potential nomination of Kevin Warsh for Federal Reserve Chair will not be withdrawn by May 15, driven primarily by the absence of any formal nomination announcement to date. During the transition period, Trump has interviewed Warsh—a former Fed governor favored for his hawkish monetary policy views—but has signaled openness to other candidates like Scott Bessent, with no official submission to the Senate expected before inauguration on January 20. Procedural hurdles, including Senate confirmation timelines, further bolster confidence in the "No" outcome. Realistic shifts could arise from an abrupt nomination followed by swift withdrawal amid bipartisan opposition, personal scandal, or a pivot to another pick, though such volatility remains low-probability given the extended runway to Chair Powell's May 2026 term end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated$47,317 Vol.
$47,317 Vol.
May 15, 2026
$47,317 Vol.
$47,317 Vol.
May 15, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Kevin Warsh’s nomination as Chair of the Federal Reserve is withdrawn by May 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Formal withdrawal of Warsh’s nomination as Chair of the Federal Reserve is required for a “Yes” resolution. Rejection of Warsh’s nomination by the United States Senate will not count.
If Kevin Warsh is formally confirmed as Chair of the Federal Reserve by the Senate, this market will immediately resolve to “No”.
If Warsh's nomination remains pending in the Senate through May 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Kevin Warsh, the Trump Administration, and the United States Senate; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Kevin Warsh’s nomination as Chair of the Federal Reserve is withdrawn by May 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Formal withdrawal of Warsh’s nomination as Chair of the Federal Reserve is required for a “Yes” resolution. Rejection of Warsh’s nomination by the United States Senate will not count.
If Kevin Warsh is formally confirmed as Chair of the Federal Reserve by the Senate, this market will immediately resolve to “No”.
If Warsh's nomination remains pending in the Senate through May 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Kevin Warsh, the Trump Administration, and the United States Senate; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Kevin Warsh’s nomination as Chair of the Federal Reserve is withdrawn by May 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Formal withdrawal of Warsh’s nomination as Chair of the Federal Reserve is required for a “Yes” resolution. Rejection of Warsh’s nomination by the United States Senate will not count.
If Kevin Warsh is formally confirmed as Chair of the Federal Reserve by the Senate, this market will immediately resolve to “No”.
If Warsh's nomination remains pending in the Senate through May 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Kevin Warsh, the Trump Administration, and the United States Senate; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Formal withdrawal of Warsh’s nomination as Chair of the Federal Reserve is required for a “Yes” resolution. Rejection of Warsh’s nomination by the United States Senate will not count.
If Kevin Warsh is formally confirmed as Chair of the Federal Reserve by the Senate, this market will immediately resolve to “No”.
If Warsh's nomination remains pending in the Senate through May 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Kevin Warsh, the Trump Administration, and the United States Senate; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Mar 5, 2026, 5:05 PM ET
Volume
$47,317End Date
May 15, 2026Market Opened
Mar 5, 2026, 5:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Kevin Warsh’s nomination as Chair of the Federal Reserve is withdrawn by May 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Formal withdrawal of Warsh’s nomination as Chair of the Federal Reserve is required for a “Yes” resolution. Rejection of Warsh’s nomination by the United States Senate will not count.
If Kevin Warsh is formally confirmed as Chair of the Federal Reserve by the Senate, this market will immediately resolve to “No”.
If Warsh's nomination remains pending in the Senate through May 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Kevin Warsh, the Trump Administration, and the United States Senate; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Kevin Warsh’s nomination as Chair of the Federal Reserve is withdrawn by May 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Formal withdrawal of Warsh’s nomination as Chair of the Federal Reserve is required for a “Yes” resolution. Rejection of Warsh’s nomination by the United States Senate will not count.
If Kevin Warsh is formally confirmed as Chair of the Federal Reserve by the Senate, this market will immediately resolve to “No”.
If Warsh's nomination remains pending in the Senate through May 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Kevin Warsh, the Trump Administration, and the United States Senate; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Kevin Warsh’s nomination as Chair of the Federal Reserve is withdrawn by May 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Formal withdrawal of Warsh’s nomination as Chair of the Federal Reserve is required for a “Yes” resolution. Rejection of Warsh’s nomination by the United States Senate will not count.
If Kevin Warsh is formally confirmed as Chair of the Federal Reserve by the Senate, this market will immediately resolve to “No”.
If Warsh's nomination remains pending in the Senate through May 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Kevin Warsh, the Trump Administration, and the United States Senate; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Formal withdrawal of Warsh’s nomination as Chair of the Federal Reserve is required for a “Yes” resolution. Rejection of Warsh’s nomination by the United States Senate will not count.
If Kevin Warsh is formally confirmed as Chair of the Federal Reserve by the Senate, this market will immediately resolve to “No”.
If Warsh's nomination remains pending in the Senate through May 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Kevin Warsh, the Trump Administration, and the United States Senate; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$47,317End Date
May 15, 2026Market Opened
Mar 5, 2026, 5:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus reflects near-certainty at 97.5% that President-elect Trump's potential nomination of Kevin Warsh for Federal Reserve Chair will not be withdrawn by May 15, driven primarily by the absence of any formal nomination announcement to date. During the transition period, Trump has interviewed Warsh—a former Fed governor favored for his hawkish monetary policy views—but has signaled openness to other candidates like Scott Bessent, with no official submission to the Senate expected before inauguration on January 20. Procedural hurdles, including Senate confirmation timelines, further bolster confidence in the "No" outcome. Realistic shifts could arise from an abrupt nomination followed by swift withdrawal amid bipartisan opposition, personal scandal, or a pivot to another pick, though such volatility remains low-probability given the extended runway to Chair Powell's May 2026 term end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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