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Highest temperature in Shenzhen on March 29?

Market icon

Highest temperature in Shenzhen on March 29?

Mar 28

Mar 29

Mar 28

Mar 29

27°C 33%

26°C 27%

28°C 21%

29°C 10%

Polymarket

$33,589 Vol.

27°C 33%

26°C 27%

28°C 21%

29°C 10%

Polymarket

$33,589 Vol.

21°C or below

$4,270 Vol.

<1%

22°C

$5,376 Vol.

<1%

23°C

$7,385 Vol.

1%

24°C

$2,495 Vol.

2%

25°C

$1,620 Vol.

7%

26°C

$1,469 Vol.

27%

27°C

$1,970 Vol.

33%

28°C

$1,525 Vol.

21%

29°C

$1,758 Vol.

10%

30°C

$2,280 Vol.

3%

31°C or higher

$3,441 Vol.

2%

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Baoan International Airport in degrees Celsius on 29 Mar '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Ensemble weather model forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and Global Forecast System (GFS), corroborated by AccuWeather and China Meteorological Administration guidance, cluster Shenzhen's highest temperature on March 29 around 26–28°C under a persistent subtropical high-pressure ridge driving warm southerly winds from the South China Sea. This tight spread explains trader consensus favoring 27°C (32.5% implied probability) and 26°C (28.0%) nearly equally, with 28°C (20.5%) close behind, as variable cloud cover and moderating sea breezes introduce uncertainty in peak daytime solar insolation and potential late-afternoon showers capping heating. A recent warm spell peaked at 29°C on March 26—well above March climatological norms of 23–24°C—but rising humidity signals moderation; monitor afternoon model updates for convective shifts before resolution via official Shenzhen Bao'an Airport observations.

Ensemble weather model forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and Global Forecast System (GFS), corroborated by AccuWeather and China Meteorological Administration guidance, cluster Shenzhen's highest temperature on March 29 around 26–28°C under a persistent subtropical high-pressure ridge driving warm southerly winds from the South China Sea. This tight spread explains trader consensus favoring 27°C (32.5% implied probability) and 26°C (28.0%) nearly equally, with 28°C (20.5%) close behind, as variable cloud cover and moderating sea breezes introduce uncertainty in peak daytime solar insolation and potential late-afternoon showers capping heating. A recent warm spell peaked at 29°C on March 26—well above March climatological norms of 23–24°C—but rising humidity signals moderation; monitor afternoon model updates for convective shifts before resolution via official Shenzhen Bao'an Airport observations.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Baoan International Airport in degrees Celsius on 29 Mar '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Ensemble weather model forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and Global Forecast System (GFS), corroborated by AccuWeather and China Meteorological Administration guidance, cluster Shenzhen's highest temperature on March 29 around 26–28°C under a persistent subtropical high-pressure ridge driving warm southerly winds from the South China Sea. This tight spread explains trader consensus favoring 27°C (32.5% implied probability) and 26°C (28.0%) nearly equally, with 28°C (20.5%) close behind, as variable cloud cover and moderating sea breezes introduce uncertainty in peak daytime solar insolation and potential late-afternoon showers capping heating. A recent warm spell peaked at 29°C on March 26—well above March climatological norms of 23–24°C—but rising humidity signals moderation; monitor afternoon model updates for convective shifts before resolution via official Shenzhen Bao'an Airport observations.

Ensemble weather model forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and Global Forecast System (GFS), corroborated by AccuWeather and China Meteorological Administration guidance, cluster Shenzhen's highest temperature on March 29 around 26–28°C under a persistent subtropical high-pressure ridge driving warm southerly winds from the South China Sea. This tight spread explains trader consensus favoring 27°C (32.5% implied probability) and 26°C (28.0%) nearly equally, with 28°C (20.5%) close behind, as variable cloud cover and moderating sea breezes introduce uncertainty in peak daytime solar insolation and potential late-afternoon showers capping heating. A recent warm spell peaked at 29°C on March 26—well above March climatological norms of 23–24°C—but rising humidity signals moderation; monitor afternoon model updates for convective shifts before resolution via official Shenzhen Bao'an Airport observations.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Highest temperature in Shenzhen on March 29?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 11 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "27°C" at 33%, followed by "26°C" at 27%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 33¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 33% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Highest temperature in Shenzhen on March 29?" has generated $33.6K in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 25, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Highest temperature in Shenzhen on March 29?," browse the 11 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Highest temperature in Shenzhen on March 29?" is "27°C" at 33%, meaning the market assigns a 33% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "26°C" at 27%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Highest temperature in Shenzhen on March 29?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.