Trader consensus on Polymarket favors a Seattle high of 52-53°F at 41.5% implied probability, reflecting the latest National Weather Service forecast models showing ensemble means in that range amid persistent cool upper-air temperatures and marine layer influence over the Pacific Northwest. Recent 00Z GFS and ECMWF runs updated March 25 depict weak ridging giving way to northwest flow, capping highs below seasonal norms of around 55°F, with cloud cover limiting solar heating; no significant warm air advection is expected. Observations from Sea-Tac Airport yesterday hit 51°F, aligning with this moderation. Key watch: afternoon 12Z model refresh and hourly observations on March 26, which could shift odds if boundary layer mixing exceeds expectations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedHighest temperature in Seattle on March 26?
Highest temperature in Seattle on March 26?
52-53°F 42%
54-55°F 21%
50-51°F 16%
48-49°F 7%
$32,091 Vol.
$32,091 Vol.
43°F or below
<1%
44-45°F
1%
46-47°F
1%
48-49°F
7%
50-51°F
16%
52-53°F
42%
54-55°F
21%
56-57°F
5%
58-59°F
1%
60-61°F
<1%
62°F or higher
<1%
52-53°F 42%
54-55°F 21%
50-51°F 16%
48-49°F 7%
$32,091 Vol.
$32,091 Vol.
43°F or below
<1%
44-45°F
1%
46-47°F
1%
48-49°F
7%
50-51°F
16%
52-53°F
42%
54-55°F
21%
56-57°F
5%
58-59°F
1%
60-61°F
<1%
62°F or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/wa/seatac/KSEA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Mar 22, 2026, 6:01 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/wa/seatac/KSEAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/wa/seatac/KSEAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket favors a Seattle high of 52-53°F at 41.5% implied probability, reflecting the latest National Weather Service forecast models showing ensemble means in that range amid persistent cool upper-air temperatures and marine layer influence over the Pacific Northwest. Recent 00Z GFS and ECMWF runs updated March 25 depict weak ridging giving way to northwest flow, capping highs below seasonal norms of around 55°F, with cloud cover limiting solar heating; no significant warm air advection is expected. Observations from Sea-Tac Airport yesterday hit 51°F, aligning with this moderation. Key watch: afternoon 12Z model refresh and hourly observations on March 26, which could shift odds if boundary layer mixing exceeds expectations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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