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Highest temperature in San Francisco on March 29?

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Highest temperature in San Francisco on March 29?

Mar 27

Mar 28

Mar 29

Mar 27

Mar 28

Mar 29

76°F or higher 49%

74-75°F 23%

72-73°F 13%

70-71°F 10%

Polymarket

$20,043 Vol.

76°F or higher 49%

74-75°F 23%

72-73°F 13%

70-71°F 10%

Polymarket

$20,043 Vol.

57°F or below

$2,887 Vol.

<1%

58-59°F

$1,118 Vol.

<1%

60-61°F

$4,993 Vol.

1%

62-63°F

$1,376 Vol.

1%

64-65°F

$1,906 Vol.

1%

66-67°F

$1,620 Vol.

3%

68-69°F

$1,174 Vol.

5%

70-71°F

$1,479 Vol.

10%

72-73°F

$926 Vol.

13%

74-75°F

$1,004 Vol.

23%

76°F or higher

$1,560 Vol.

49%

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 29 Mar '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 48.5% implied probability for San Francisco's highest temperature reaching 76°F or higher on March 29, surpassing the National Weather Service's conservative guidance of near 71°F under sunny skies and light onshore winds that typically moderate coastal highs via the marine layer. This positioning stems from the lingering effects of a historic March heat wave—smashing records with downtown San Francisco hitting 90°F on March 20 and San Francisco International Airport at 89°F—fueled by a persistent upper-level ridge promoting subsidence and dry adiabatic warming. Ensemble models like GFS and ECMWF reveal upside potential for hotter outcomes if winds slacken further, enabling early boundary layer mixing; watch the NWS Bay Area evening forecast discussion for updates amid climatological March averages around 62°F.

Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 48.5% implied probability for San Francisco's highest temperature reaching 76°F or higher on March 29, surpassing the National Weather Service's conservative guidance of near 71°F under sunny skies and light onshore winds that typically moderate coastal highs via the marine layer. This positioning stems from the lingering effects of a historic March heat wave—smashing records with downtown San Francisco hitting 90°F on March 20 and San Francisco International Airport at 89°F—fueled by a persistent upper-level ridge promoting subsidence and dry adiabatic warming. Ensemble models like GFS and ECMWF reveal upside potential for hotter outcomes if winds slacken further, enabling early boundary layer mixing; watch the NWS Bay Area evening forecast discussion for updates amid climatological March averages around 62°F.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 29 Mar '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 48.5% implied probability for San Francisco's highest temperature reaching 76°F or higher on March 29, surpassing the National Weather Service's conservative guidance of near 71°F under sunny skies and light onshore winds that typically moderate coastal highs via the marine layer. This positioning stems from the lingering effects of a historic March heat wave—smashing records with downtown San Francisco hitting 90°F on March 20 and San Francisco International Airport at 89°F—fueled by a persistent upper-level ridge promoting subsidence and dry adiabatic warming. Ensemble models like GFS and ECMWF reveal upside potential for hotter outcomes if winds slacken further, enabling early boundary layer mixing; watch the NWS Bay Area evening forecast discussion for updates amid climatological March averages around 62°F.

Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 48.5% implied probability for San Francisco's highest temperature reaching 76°F or higher on March 29, surpassing the National Weather Service's conservative guidance of near 71°F under sunny skies and light onshore winds that typically moderate coastal highs via the marine layer. This positioning stems from the lingering effects of a historic March heat wave—smashing records with downtown San Francisco hitting 90°F on March 20 and San Francisco International Airport at 89°F—fueled by a persistent upper-level ridge promoting subsidence and dry adiabatic warming. Ensemble models like GFS and ECMWF reveal upside potential for hotter outcomes if winds slacken further, enabling early boundary layer mixing; watch the NWS Bay Area evening forecast discussion for updates amid climatological March averages around 62°F.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Highest temperature in San Francisco on March 29?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 11 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "76°F or higher" at 49%, followed by "74-75°F" at 23%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 49¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 49% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Highest temperature in San Francisco on March 29?" has generated $20K in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 25, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Highest temperature in San Francisco on March 29?," browse the 11 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Highest temperature in San Francisco on March 29?" is "76°F or higher" at 49%, meaning the market assigns a 49% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "74-75°F" at 23%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Highest temperature in San Francisco on March 29?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.