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Highest temperature in Hong Kong on March 26?

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Highest temperature in Hong Kong on March 26?

Mar 26

Mar 27

Mar 28

Mar 29

Mar 26

Mar 27

Mar 28

Mar 29

28°C or higher 100.0%

26°C <1%

22°C <1%

20°C <1%

Polymarket

$238,811 Vol.

28°C or higher 100.0%

26°C <1%

22°C <1%

20°C <1%

Polymarket

$238,811 Vol.

18°C or below

$23,622 Vol.

<1%

19°C

$9,476 Vol.

<1%

20°C

$11,016 Vol.

<1%

21°C

$10,300 Vol.

<1%

22°C

$14,963 Vol.

<1%

23°C

$25,369 Vol.

<1%

24°C

$23,888 Vol.

<1%

25°C

$19,642 Vol.

<1%

26°C

$23,435 Vol.

<1%

27°C

$20,753 Vol.

<1%

28°C or higher

$56,348 Vol.

100%

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 26 Mar '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Hong Kong Observatory forecasts confirm a high of 28–30°C on March 26 under a dominant high-pressure ridge delivering warm, dry continental air, solidifying trader consensus at 100% implied probability for 28°C or higher. Ensemble models from global systems like ECMWF and GFS show tight agreement on peak afternoon temperatures well above the March climatological average of 23°C, fueled by clear skies and light winds enhancing solar heating. Recent observations through March 25 logged similar highs, with no frontal systems in steering patterns to disrupt. An abrupt cool air advection—unlikely given synoptic setup—remains the sole realistic challenger, pending final hourly updates from the Observatory.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 26 Mar '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm

This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$238,811
End Date
Mar 26, 2026
Market Opened
Mar 22, 2026, 6:03 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 26 Mar '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Hong Kong Observatory forecasts confirm a high of 28–30°C on March 26 under a dominant high-pressure ridge delivering warm, dry continental air, solidifying trader consensus at 100% implied probability for 28°C or higher. Ensemble models from global systems like ECMWF and GFS show tight agreement on peak afternoon temperatures well above the March climatological average of 23°C, fueled by clear skies and light winds enhancing solar heating. Recent observations through March 25 logged similar highs, with no frontal systems in steering patterns to disrupt. An abrupt cool air advection—unlikely given synoptic setup—remains the sole realistic challenger, pending final hourly updates from the Observatory.

Hong Kong Observatory forecasts confirm a high of 28–30°C on March 26 under a dominant high-pressure ridge delivering warm, dry continental air, solidifying trader consensus at 100% implied probability for 28°C or higher. Ensemble models from global systems like ECMWF and GFS show tight agreement on peak afternoon temperatures well above the March climatological average of 23°C, fueled by clear skies and light winds enhancing solar heating. Recent observations through March 25 logged similar highs, with no frontal systems in steering patterns to disrupt. An abrupt cool air advection—unlikely given synoptic setup—remains the sole realistic challenger, pending final hourly updates from the Observatory.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Highest temperature in Hong Kong on March 26?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 11 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "28°C or higher" at 100%, followed by "18°C or below" at 0%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Highest temperature in Hong Kong on March 26?" has generated $238.8K in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 22, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Highest temperature in Hong Kong on March 26?," browse the 11 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Highest temperature in Hong Kong on March 26?" is "28°C or higher" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "18°C or below" at 0%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Highest temperature in Hong Kong on March 26?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.