Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors 88-89°F (35.5% implied probability) as Dallas's highest temperature on March 26, driven by the National Weather Service's latest forecast of a high near 87°F amid a strengthening upper-level ridge over Texas fostering above-normal warmth. Ensemble models like GFS and ECMWF show peaks clustering at 86-91°F, with the 12z GFS run yesterday trending 1-2°F warmer due to persistent southerly winds and dry soils minimizing evaporative cooling. This setup positions an 80% market-implied chance of 86°F or higher, far exceeding the late-March climatological average of 72°F, though evening NWS updates could refine these odds further based on boundary layer evolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedHighest temperature in Dallas on March 26?
Highest temperature in Dallas on March 26?
88-89°F 32%
86-87°F 29%
90-91°F 20%
92-93°F 10%
79°F or below
1%
80-81°F
1%
82-83°F
2%
84-85°F
8%
86-87°F
29%
88-89°F
32%
90-91°F
20%
92-93°F
10%
94-95°F
2%
96-97°F
1%
98°F or higher
1%
88-89°F 32%
86-87°F 29%
90-91°F 20%
92-93°F 10%
79°F or below
1%
80-81°F
1%
82-83°F
2%
84-85°F
8%
86-87°F
29%
88-89°F
32%
90-91°F
20%
92-93°F
10%
94-95°F
2%
96-97°F
1%
98°F or higher
1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Dallas Love Field Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/dallas/KDAL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Mar 22, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/dallas/KDALResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/dallas/KDALResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors 88-89°F (35.5% implied probability) as Dallas's highest temperature on March 26, driven by the National Weather Service's latest forecast of a high near 87°F amid a strengthening upper-level ridge over Texas fostering above-normal warmth. Ensemble models like GFS and ECMWF show peaks clustering at 86-91°F, with the 12z GFS run yesterday trending 1-2°F warmer due to persistent southerly winds and dry soils minimizing evaporative cooling. This setup positions an 80% market-implied chance of 86°F or higher, far exceeding the late-March climatological average of 72°F, though evening NWS updates could refine these odds further based on boundary layer evolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions