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Highest temperature in Austin on March 27?

Market icon

Highest temperature in Austin on March 27?

Mar 26

Mar 27

Mar 28

Mar 29

Mar 26

Mar 27

Mar 28

Mar 29

88-89°F 38%

86-87°F 27%

90-91°F 19%

84-85°F 10.4%

Polymarket

$18,743 Vol.

88-89°F 38%

86-87°F 27%

90-91°F 19%

84-85°F 10.4%

Polymarket

$18,743 Vol.

75°F or below

$5,744 Vol.

<1%

76-77°F

$1,614 Vol.

<1%

78-79°F

$1,547 Vol.

<1%

80-81°F

$1,086 Vol.

2%

82-83°F

$1,615 Vol.

6%

84-85°F

$1,400 Vol.

10%

86-87°F

$897 Vol.

27%

88-89°F

$1,155 Vol.

38%

90-91°F

$797 Vol.

19%

92-93°F

$1,325 Vol.

2%

94°F or higher

$1,562 Vol.

2%

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 27 Mar '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest National Weather Service guidance and forecast ensembles from NOAA's Global Forecast System (GFS) and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) project Austin's highest temperature on March 27 clustering at 86-89°F, driving trader consensus with 35.5% implied probability on 88-89°F and 26% on 86-87°F. A persistent upper-level ridge over the central U.S. promotes warm air advection from the south, subsidence inhibiting clouds, and light southerly winds maximizing daytime heating under sunny skies, pushing readings well above the climatological March average of 74°F. Differentiating factors include model spread on afternoon cloud development and exact ridge amplitude—stronger ridging could nudge toward 90°F+, while subtle shear might cap at 86°F. New 12z model runs expected today will refine these uncertainties ahead of the event.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 27 Mar '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.

To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.

This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$18,743
End Date
Mar 27, 2026
Market Opened
Mar 23, 2026, 6:11 AM ET

Resolution Source

https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 27 Mar '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest National Weather Service guidance and forecast ensembles from NOAA's Global Forecast System (GFS) and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) project Austin's highest temperature on March 27 clustering at 86-89°F, driving trader consensus with 35.5% implied probability on 88-89°F and 26% on 86-87°F. A persistent upper-level ridge over the central U.S. promotes warm air advection from the south, subsidence inhibiting clouds, and light southerly winds maximizing daytime heating under sunny skies, pushing readings well above the climatological March average of 74°F. Differentiating factors include model spread on afternoon cloud development and exact ridge amplitude—stronger ridging could nudge toward 90°F+, while subtle shear might cap at 86°F. New 12z model runs expected today will refine these uncertainties ahead of the event.

Latest National Weather Service guidance and forecast ensembles from NOAA's Global Forecast System (GFS) and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) project Austin's highest temperature on March 27 clustering at 86-89°F, driving trader consensus with 35.5% implied probability on 88-89°F and 26% on 86-87°F. A persistent upper-level ridge over the central U.S. promotes warm air advection from the south, subsidence inhibiting clouds, and light southerly winds maximizing daytime heating under sunny skies, pushing readings well above the climatological March average of 74°F. Differentiating factors include model spread on afternoon cloud development and exact ridge amplitude—stronger ridging could nudge toward 90°F+, while subtle shear might cap at 86°F. New 12z model runs expected today will refine these uncertainties ahead of the event.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Highest temperature in Austin on March 27?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 11 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "88-89°F" at 38%, followed by "86-87°F" at 27%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 38¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 38% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Highest temperature in Austin on March 27?" has generated $18.7K in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 23, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Highest temperature in Austin on March 27?," browse the 11 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Highest temperature in Austin on March 27?" is "88-89°F" at 38%, meaning the market assigns a 38% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "86-87°F" at 27%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Highest temperature in Austin on March 27?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.