Incumbent Democrat Gabe Vasquez's lead in a recent NRCC survey over Republican Greg Cunningham in this tossup battleground district underpins trader consensus favoring Democrats at 62.5%, reflecting his narrow 2022 victory and fundraising edge in a Trump +10 area. GOP odds at 15% persist despite consolidation behind Cunningham following Jose Orozco's April dropout and heavyweights' endorsements, as generic ballot remains tied amid surging independent voters and dipping Democratic registration. June 2 primaries loom as the next catalyst, with Vasquez facing minimal primary opposition while Republicans finalize their nominee.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$17,411 거래량
$17,411 거래량
2026.11.04
민주당
61%
공화당
22%
$17,411 거래량
$17,411 거래량
2026.11.04
민주당
$1,448 거래량
61%
공화당
$15,964 거래량
22%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NM-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Gabe Vasquez's lead in a recent NRCC survey over Republican Greg Cunningham in this tossup battleground district underpins trader consensus favoring Democrats at 62.5%, reflecting his narrow 2022 victory and fundraising edge in a Trump +10 area. GOP odds at 15% persist despite consolidation behind Cunningham following Jose Orozco's April dropout and heavyweights' endorsements, as generic ballot remains tied amid surging independent voters and dipping Democratic registration. June 2 primaries loom as the next catalyst, with Vasquez facing minimal primary opposition while Republicans finalize their nominee.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NM-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
마켓 개설일: Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ET
거래량
$17,411종료일
2026.11.04마켓 개설일
Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NM-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Gabe Vasquez's lead in a recent NRCC survey over Republican Greg Cunningham in this tossup battleground district underpins trader consensus favoring Democrats at 62.5%, reflecting his narrow 2022 victory and fundraising edge in a Trump +10 area. GOP odds at 15% persist despite consolidation behind Cunningham following Jose Orozco's April dropout and heavyweights' endorsements, as generic ballot remains tied amid surging independent voters and dipping Democratic registration. June 2 primaries loom as the next catalyst, with Vasquez facing minimal primary opposition while Republicans finalize their nominee.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NM-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
거래량
$17,411종료일
2026.11.04마켓 개설일
Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Gabe Vasquez's lead in a recent NRCC survey over Republican Greg Cunningham in this tossup battleground district underpins trader consensus favoring Democrats at 62.5%, reflecting his narrow 2022 victory and fundraising edge in a Trump +10 area. GOP odds at 15% persist despite consolidation behind Cunningham following Jose Orozco's April dropout and heavyweights' endorsements, as generic ballot remains tied amid surging independent voters and dipping Democratic registration. June 2 primaries loom as the next catalyst, with Vasquez facing minimal primary opposition while Republicans finalize their nominee.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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