Incumbent Rep. Norma Torres (D) commands trader consensus at 95.5% implied probability in California's 35th Congressional District House race, driven by her 58%-42% 2024 victory over challenger Mike Cargile (R), a rematch set after California's top-two primary on June 2. Torres holds a massive fundraising edge—$381,000 cash-on-hand versus Cargile's $3,000 as of late March—bolstered by the district's D+6 Cook Partisan Voting Index and 2024 presidential results favoring Kamala Harris 52%-45%. Recent confirmation of Proposition 50 redistricting maps preserved the Inland Empire seat's Solid Democratic rating from Cook and Sabato. Upsets would require Torres' withdrawal, a personal scandal, or a historic GOP midterm wave exceeding 2024 Trump gains among Latino voters.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$32,988 거래량
$32,988 거래량
2026.11.03
민주당
96%
공화당
5%
$32,988 거래량
$32,988 거래량
2026.11.03
민주당
$19,883 거래량
96%
공화당
$13,106 거래량
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-35 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Norma Torres (D) commands trader consensus at 95.5% implied probability in California's 35th Congressional District House race, driven by her 58%-42% 2024 victory over challenger Mike Cargile (R), a rematch set after California's top-two primary on June 2. Torres holds a massive fundraising edge—$381,000 cash-on-hand versus Cargile's $3,000 as of late March—bolstered by the district's D+6 Cook Partisan Voting Index and 2024 presidential results favoring Kamala Harris 52%-45%. Recent confirmation of Proposition 50 redistricting maps preserved the Inland Empire seat's Solid Democratic rating from Cook and Sabato. Upsets would require Torres' withdrawal, a personal scandal, or a historic GOP midterm wave exceeding 2024 Trump gains among Latino voters.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-35 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
마켓 개설일: Jan 28, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
거래량
$32,988종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-35 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Norma Torres (D) commands trader consensus at 95.5% implied probability in California's 35th Congressional District House race, driven by her 58%-42% 2024 victory over challenger Mike Cargile (R), a rematch set after California's top-two primary on June 2. Torres holds a massive fundraising edge—$381,000 cash-on-hand versus Cargile's $3,000 as of late March—bolstered by the district's D+6 Cook Partisan Voting Index and 2024 presidential results favoring Kamala Harris 52%-45%. Recent confirmation of Proposition 50 redistricting maps preserved the Inland Empire seat's Solid Democratic rating from Cook and Sabato. Upsets would require Torres' withdrawal, a personal scandal, or a historic GOP midterm wave exceeding 2024 Trump gains among Latino voters.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-35 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
거래량
$32,988종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Rep. Norma Torres (D) commands trader consensus at 95.5% implied probability in California's 35th Congressional District House race, driven by her 58%-42% 2024 victory over challenger Mike Cargile (R), a rematch set after California's top-two primary on June 2. Torres holds a massive fundraising edge—$381,000 cash-on-hand versus Cargile's $3,000 as of late March—bolstered by the district's D+6 Cook Partisan Voting Index and 2024 presidential results favoring Kamala Harris 52%-45%. Recent confirmation of Proposition 50 redistricting maps preserved the Inland Empire seat's Solid Democratic rating from Cook and Sabato. Upsets would require Torres' withdrawal, a personal scandal, or a historic GOP midterm wave exceeding 2024 Trump gains among Latino voters.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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