The district's D+7 partisan lean and incumbent Pete Aguilar's strong performance in the June 2026 top-two primary underpin trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee in the November general election. The seat covers parts of San Bernardino County with a majority-Hispanic population that has supported Democratic candidates by double-digit margins in recent cycles. Aguilar, a senior House Democrat, faces limited Republican opposition after primary vote splitting among challengers. Historical patterns in similar California districts and the absence of major local controversies reinforce the current pricing. Late developments such as a national political shift, candidate withdrawal, or significant scandal could still alter the outcome before November.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트신규
신규
2026.11.03
Democratic Party
94%
Republican Party
6%
신규
신규
2026.11.03
Democratic Party
$4,273 거래량
94%
Republican Party
$1,470 거래량
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-33 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The district's D+7 partisan lean and incumbent Pete Aguilar's strong performance in the June 2026 top-two primary underpin trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee in the November general election. The seat covers parts of San Bernardino County with a majority-Hispanic population that has supported Democratic candidates by double-digit margins in recent cycles. Aguilar, a senior House Democrat, faces limited Republican opposition after primary vote splitting among challengers. Historical patterns in similar California districts and the absence of major local controversies reinforce the current pricing. Late developments such as a national political shift, candidate withdrawal, or significant scandal could still alter the outcome before November.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-33 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
마켓 개설일: Jan 28, 2026, 12:18 AM ET
거래량
$5,743종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 12:18 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-33 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The district's D+7 partisan lean and incumbent Pete Aguilar's strong performance in the June 2026 top-two primary underpin trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee in the November general election. The seat covers parts of San Bernardino County with a majority-Hispanic population that has supported Democratic candidates by double-digit margins in recent cycles. Aguilar, a senior House Democrat, faces limited Republican opposition after primary vote splitting among challengers. Historical patterns in similar California districts and the absence of major local controversies reinforce the current pricing. Late developments such as a national political shift, candidate withdrawal, or significant scandal could still alter the outcome before November.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-33 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
거래량
$5,743종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 12:18 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The district's D+7 partisan lean and incumbent Pete Aguilar's strong performance in the June 2026 top-two primary underpin trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee in the November general election. The seat covers parts of San Bernardino County with a majority-Hispanic population that has supported Democratic candidates by double-digit margins in recent cycles. Aguilar, a senior House Democrat, faces limited Republican opposition after primary vote splitting among challengers. Historical patterns in similar California districts and the absence of major local controversies reinforce the current pricing. Late developments such as a national political shift, candidate withdrawal, or significant scandal could still alter the outcome before November.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
외부 링크에 주의하세요.
외부 링크에 주의하세요.
자주 묻는 질문