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How many people will Trump deport in 2025?

Market icon

How many people will Trump deport in 2025?

250-500k 100.0%

<250k <1%

500-750k <1%

750k-1m <1%

Polymarket

$12,394,195 Vol.

250-500k 100.0%

<250k <1%

500-750k <1%

750k-1m <1%

Polymarket

$12,394,195 Vol.

<250k

$1,312,520 Vol.

No

250-500k

$7,563,256 Vol.

Yes

500-750k

$580,037 Vol.

No

750k-1m

$566,696 Vol.

No

1-1.25m

$547,973 Vol.

No

1.25-1.5m

$500,985 Vol.

No

1.5-1.75m

$484,385 Vol.

No

1.75-2m

$419,524 Vol.

No

2m+

$418,819 Vol.

No

During the 2024 FY ICE removed 271,484 non citizens (see: https://www.ice.gov/doclib/eoy/iceAnnualReportFY2024.pdf).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) removes less than 250,000 non citizens in the 2025 fiscal year. Otherwise, this market ill resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the FY 2025 ICE Annual Report. If the FY 2025 ICE Annual Report is not published by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be used.
Volume
$12,394,195
End Date
Dec 31, 2025
Market Opened
Jan 5, 2025, 2:47 PM ET
During the 2024 FY ICE removed 271,484 non citizens (see: https://www.ice.gov/doclib/eoy/iceAnnualReportFY2024.pdf). This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) removes less than 250,000 non citizens in the 2025 fiscal year. Otherwise, this market ill resolve to "No". The resolution source will be the FY 2025 ICE Annual Report. If the FY 2025 ICE Annual Report is not published by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be used.

Outcome proposed: No

No dispute

Final outcome: No

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"How many people will Trump deport in 2025?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 9 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "250-500k" at 100%, followed by "<250k" at 0%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "How many people will Trump deport in 2025?" has generated $12.4 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jan 5, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "How many people will Trump deport in 2025?," browse the 9 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "How many people will Trump deport in 2025?" is "250-500k" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "<250k" at 0%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "How many people will Trump deport in 2025?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.