Kazakhstan's formal entry into the Abraham Accords in early 2026, following its November 2025 announcement, has revived expansion momentum under the second Trump administration, bolstered by the October 2025 Gaza ceasefire and recent U.S. strikes degrading Iran's regional influence. Somaliland leads trader consensus at 28% implied probability after pledging accession in December 2025 upon Israeli recognition, though formal signing awaits. Saudi Arabia trails closely at 25%, fueled by President Trump's appeals to Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman four days ago for normalization amid defense-tech corridor talks. Azerbaijan (26%) benefits from Netanyahu's planned Baku visit, while Oman (15%) and Kuwait (18%) face hurdles from Arab League pressures, as seen in yesterday's joint statement by Saudi, Qatar, and others. Upcoming summits and security pacts could shift odds before year-end resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日$354,480 Vol.
ソマリランド
28%
レバノン
23%
サウジアラビア
22%
アゼルバイジャン
25%
シリア
22%
オマーン
15%
クウェート
16%
$354,480 Vol.
ソマリランド
28%
レバノン
23%
サウジアラビア
22%
アゼルバイジャン
25%
シリア
22%
オマーン
15%
クウェート
16%
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日: Nov 5, 2025, 1:53 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Kazakhstan's formal entry into the Abraham Accords in early 2026, following its November 2025 announcement, has revived expansion momentum under the second Trump administration, bolstered by the October 2025 Gaza ceasefire and recent U.S. strikes degrading Iran's regional influence. Somaliland leads trader consensus at 28% implied probability after pledging accession in December 2025 upon Israeli recognition, though formal signing awaits. Saudi Arabia trails closely at 25%, fueled by President Trump's appeals to Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman four days ago for normalization amid defense-tech corridor talks. Azerbaijan (26%) benefits from Netanyahu's planned Baku visit, while Oman (15%) and Kuwait (18%) face hurdles from Arab League pressures, as seen in yesterday's joint statement by Saudi, Qatar, and others. Upcoming summits and security pacts could shift odds before year-end resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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